Understanding Implied Odds in No Limit Hold ’em
What we’re concerned with here is one concept and one concept only. It is without question one of the most important poker concepts ever articulated, and it’s implications in no limit poker are so significant that it warrants the full attention of an entire article.
If you’ve been around poker for a while you’re probably familiar with the term ‘pot odds’. In a nutshell, your pot odds are the odds the pot is laying you to continue on with the hand. Example: you have pocket queens in a no limit poker game, and on the river the board reads 2c 4s 6s Jh As. Your opponent fires out with a $30 bet when the As hits on the river, and there was $120 in the pot before your opponent bet.
That As certainly makes you pucker. Not only does it bring in a flush draw, but it could just as easily have given your opponent two pair, or perhaps a pair of aces. There’s also the possibility that he already had a big hand - something like three 4’s, say, or maybe a six high straight. Should you call his bet? Well, with his bet there is $150 now in the pot, and it costs you $30 to call. This means that the pot is laying you 5:1 on a call. If your hand is good here 1/6 of the time, then calling is a break even proposition.
This isn’t a very difficult concept, and most poker players have at least a rudimentary understanding of how it works. But what about implied odds? Implied odds consider not only how much is currently in the pot, but how much you expect to win in addition if your hand comes in. Example: you have pocket 3’s in a no limit game. Two opponents call the opening bet of $2, and the next player raises to $15. If this is a $1-$2 no limit game then the pot currently holds $22 (we include the small and big blinds). Since it costs you $15 to call, and there’s only $22 in the pot, you would be inclined to fold if you only considered the pot odds, since you’re not getting enough of a return to try and flop a set of 3’s.
But what if you do make your set of 3’s? If you do make your hand you could be in a position to win one heck of a big pot. This is especially true of the opponent who raised to $15 has a big pocket pair and would be willing to call a large bet on the flop. Thus, while you’re immediate odds are poor, your implied odds could be quite favorable.
Trying to calculate your implied odds is more of an art then a science since you have to try and predict what kind of action you’ll get if you hit your hand. A few of the factors you should consider are:
- Your opponents’ playing style. If your opponents are the type who get ‘married’ to hands like wired kings, or top pair with a big kicker, then your implied odds are more likely to be good.
- What kind of hand you’re drawing to. The nice thing about hitting a set is that it’s so well disguised. Your opponents frequently have trouble putting you on trips, so you’re more likely to get action from a second best hand. By contrast, if you’re drawing to a flush it’s more likely that your opponents will correctly read your hand, since making a flush is more obvious than making a set.
- Whether you’re drawing to the nuts. Your implied odds are much better when drawing to the nut straight then when you’re drawing to a small two pair, since if you do make your hand you won’t have to worry about making the second best hand.
What does all of this mean? In sum, it means that you need to consider the future action that you expect to get, and not just the immediate payoff if you happen to hit your hand. This concept also applies to limit betting poker, but in no limit poker it’s of the utmost importance that you try to quantify your implied odds before making a decision on whether or not to continue on with a hand.
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