Limit Hold ’em - An Introduction to Pot Odds
Put in the simplest terms possible, pot odds refers to the ratio between the current size of the pot and the amount of money you will have to contribute to continue with the hands. For instance, if you find yourself facing a bet on the river, and the pot contains 10 bets, then your pod odds are 10:1; i.e., you are getting 10:1 odds on your call.
Is the concept of pot odds one which you should trouble yourself to learn? Absolutely. But many players have some serious misconceptions regarding how pot odds can (or at least should) inform the play of a hand. In this article we’ll take a brief look at some of the mistakes player’s make when they try to apply this concept to the play of a given hand.
1. Pot odds should not be used as an excuse to play badly.
This may sound outrageous, but there is no paucity of players out there who seem convinced that having a crude understanding of the pot odds concept gives them license to play their hands poorly. To illustrate, consider the following scenario: You have Ts 8s on the button, and call after two players call behind you. Both blinds call, and the flop comes As Kd 8d. The big blind bets, three players call, and the action is you. Many players will call here, and insist that the pot odds justify the call. They claim that they have five outs on the turn, which means they have about a 10.6% chance of improving their hand, and they may also pick up a spade for a flush draw, which further enhances their chances of winning. Since they’re getting 9:1 odds from the pot a call here looks like an O.K. deal. But there’s a problem with this. First, there’s no guarantee that hitting a ten or an eight on the turn will make your hand best. Second, there’s some chance that one of the blinds is going to check raise, which will mean you’ll have to pay another bet to see the turn.
Just getting the right price from the pot is not enough. You need to be getting an overlay (that is, the pot odds need to exceed your odds of improving), and you need to make adjustments based on the chances that your hand may be no good if it hits.
2. Pot odds only really apply to the showdown.
Once you get to the river it becomes very important to know what your pot odds are if you’re thinking of either calling with a marginal hand or bluffing with a busted draw. But before the river simply calculating your pot odds is of limited value. This is because the price you’re getting right now from the pot isn’t nearly as important as how much you expect to win if you make your hand. The concepts that really guide the play of the hand before the river are called implied odds and reverse implied odds; two concepts that are extensions of the pot odds concept, but which account for the fact that the play of a hand should be guided not only by the current size of the pot but by what you think the size of the pot will be at the end of the hand. If you base your playing decisions on the flop and turn on nothing but the current price of the pot you’re making some very big mistakes; so big, in fact, that they may be impossible to overcome.
Pot odds are important. Nobody can dispute that. But it’s a concept with limited applications until the final betting round, and it shouldn’t be used to justify weak play.
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