Limit Hold'em When Should I Chase
Contrary to popular opinion, seeing the turn with two overcards—which we define here as two hole cards that are higher than the highest card on board—is not a sucker play. Now it’s true that a winning Hold’em player will, on average, do less chasing with overcards than a losing player. But that is not to say that a winning player should never chase with these hands. When the pot gets big, or when you’re fairly sure it will only cost you one bet to see the next card, it is frequently correct to look at the turn (and in some cases even the river) with what would generously be termed a speculative holding.
Indeed, knowing when to stray from the ‘fit or fold’ approach to limit Hold’em play that is so strongly advocated by many poker writers and theorists is critical if one wants to maximize their hourly earn. Can you win money in a loose game simply by playing tight? Sure you can. But you won’t be winning your fair share.
Here we’ll look at some of the factors that determine whether or not you should play on with two overcards. Note, however, that we do not recommend chasing blindly in any of these scenerios. As you will see, the particular composition of the board, as well as your position relative to the likely bettor (or raiser) are key factors in determining when (or if) you should ‘peel a card’.
Scenerio 1: Two overcards. There are plenty of instances where you should take a look at the turn when you flop nothing but two overcards to the board. However, this hand is not the ‘through ticket’ to the turn that many losing players seem to think it is. Some of the factors you need to consider are:
- How big are my overcards? Hands like AK, AQ, and KQ are frequently worth taking to the turn unimproved, but weaker hands, like QT, J9, KT are so forth should usually be folded unless they have something else working for them (a backdoor flush or straight draw, for instance). Don’t get in the habit of seeing the turn with the Ts 8s when the flop comes six high. If all you have are two overcards you want to be fairly sure that a) your pair will be good if it hits, and b) that a river card will not come that will overtake your hand. Hands like T8 have two problems; first, you could hit your pair and still be ‘outkicked’, if someone else has a hand like KT or A8, and secondly any card higher than a ten (or an eight, as the case may be) on the river could cripple your hand.
- Do I have anything else to go with my hand? When you have a hand like AQs or AKs you’ll often have not only two overcards, but also a backdraw flush AND a back draw straight draw. If, for example, you have the Ah Kh, and the flop comes Jh 7s 5c, you could catch a flush or an ace high straight on the river if the turn card is to your liking. When you have other ways of winning other than making a pair you should be far more inclined to at least see the turn. Note that these ‘backdoor’ draws are, in the above case, draws to the absolute nuts, so there’s no worry of ending up with a second best hand if you’re lucky enough to complete your hand on the river
- Is the highest card on the board one rank lower than my lowest hole card? This is a bad spot. While it increases your chances of making a backdoor straight, it greatly increases the odds that you’ll make a pair and find yourself up against a made two pair. If, for instance, you have the Qd Js, and the flop comes T74, hitting a jack or a queen will be a nightmare if someone is holding JT or QT. Since these are commonly played hands the chances of this happening are greater than usual.
- Is the board paired? It’s only rarely correct to chase with two overcards when there is an open pair on the board, since you have no guarantee that your pair will be good if it hits. The bigger the pair on the board, the worse your chances become. In some spots it may be correct to look at the turn when the flop brings a pair of 3’s, but it would virtually never be correct if the board held a pair of jacks (since your opponents are more likely to play a hand that contains a jack then one that contains a three).
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