Baccarat to Basics
Samuel Blankson tests out some core systems for this classic casino game
Baccarat is a simple casino card game from France or Italy (the jury is still out on its true origins). The point of the game is to be the first player at the table to hold a hand amounting to a count of nine. The game is simple with a few rules and only three payout possibilities.
I first came across baccarat whilst talking to members of my Ultimate Roulette System (URS) at a gambling forum. After several requests from the forum members for me to develop a baccarat system similar to the URS, I rose to the challenge and began playing baccarat. I was surprised at its simplicity. After having worked on the complex URS for many years, it was refreshing to begin work on such a simple yet exciting system.
A short while later I developed the Ultimate Baccarat System (UBS). This system exploited online baccarat flaws and patterns through several simple yet highly effective observations I made. Here I will attempt to explain how this system works and how it can be used to consistently win at online baccarat.
Statistical Strategies
Baccarat can be simplified by drawing an analogy to a three-sided die game. One side of the die represents Player, the second side Banker and the third side a Tie. Whilst in the three-sided die game the chances of rolling any of the three sides is equal, this is not true for baccarat. There is less chance of rolling a Tie than there is for rolling a Banker or a Player. However, because there are no negative consequences for rolling a Tie, we can ignore it and consider the Player and Banker only in our game. This changes our game to a coin toss game, where one side of the coin represents Player and the other side Banker.
There is thus a 50/50 chance of the Player winning or the Banker winning. Because of this, we can apply a few techniques that will increase the chances of winning if we bet on either one of the two. Before we delve into these techniques, let us first look at some of the patterns you will spot at online casino baccarat games.
The Popular Banker Observation
When you play online baccarat you will notice that the number of wins differ between Players and Bankers. I am not suggesting that the casinos cheat; however, they stand to make more money when the Banker wins as they charge commission on Banker wins as opposed to no commission charges on Player wins. It therefore makes sense that they should aim to have the Banker win more than the Player.
In the table below we see the results from a 766 round baccarat game in which the Banker led in wins by 14.6% over the Player. This is a clear advantage over and above the commission based casino edge already applied to the game.
Player: 321
Banker: 376
Tie: 6
I point out this observation just to show those who hold the belief that online baccarat is based purely on probability—clearly it is not. And because it is not, we can take advantage of the disadvantage by betting mainly on the Banker.
“Ahhh, but…” you say, “what about the commission charges?”
Firstly, if you win 14.6% more than you lose, you can afford the commission charges, secondly there is now an online casino solution to this problem–the Betfair “Zero Lounge”. Betfair now offers a baccarat game without the casino edge applied.
The Long Banker Winning Streak Observation
OK, now let’s look at another curious online casino baccarat game observation. Again, let me say that I am not suggesting that casinos apply some kind of unfair advantage to their baccarat games; however, the following observations are very curious indeed. Table 2 illustrates how many times various winning streak lengths occurred in the 766 round Baccarat game.
You will notice that in the shorter winning streak lengths (i.e. 2 and 3) Player winning streaks occur more often than Banker winning streaks; however, from winning streak length 4 onwards, this changes dramatically.
As an example, look at winning streak 4. The Banker experienced 17 four-win winning streaks whilst the Player experienced only 7. Similarly the Banker experienced 6 five-win winning streaks whilst the Player only experienced 1. Curious don’t you think?
This observation is extremely useful if you are using a Winning Streak technique. This technique requires you to chase Banker wins after each 3-length Banker winning streak and chase Player wins after each player win from a Banker win. By the last bit I mean if the Player wins immediately after a Banker win then bet on the Player to win the next round to make it a double player win streak. Otherwise, the rest of the time, bet on the Banker to win.
Tie Placement
The last pattern I will discuss concerns the occurrence of Ties in online baccarat games.
In my 766 round baccarat game, the Tie occurred 69 times. Of these 69 Ties, 44 separated Player and Banker wins–whilst 25 of them separated a Banker or Player winning streak. What this means is that if you bet on the opposite hand immediately after a Tie occurrence, you have better than 63% chance of winning ((44/69) x 100). Of the 25 Tie occurrences that you would have lost on, 20 of them won within 3 rounds of the Tie occurrence. If you used a three length progressive stake list and kept your bet the same (Player or Banker), you would have won 20 out of the 25 Tie occurrences.
Here is an example. You are playing online baccarat and a Tie occurs. The hand that won just before the Tie was the Player. The chances of you winning on the Banker within the next three rounds is over 90% (((44+20)/69)) x100)–using the statistics from my 766 round baccarat game.
Therefore you can use a three stake length progressive stake list to capture the Banker win. The following is an example of a 3 length progressive stake list.
1
3
10
When using progressive stakes, stop incrementing as soon as you win and return to your normal play.
The Tie normally occurs around “busy” sections of a baccarat game. “Busy” here means that winning few or no streaks are in progress and the Player and the Banker hands take turns to win like in tennis or a ping pong game.
If you are after the Tie win, my advice is to never chase Tie wins during long winning streaks. Instead chase Ties during “busy” periods.
Similarly, never chase a Tie win with progressive stakes. When chasing a Tie win, always use flat bets. Tie wins normally pay 8-1 odds or better, thus using a flat bet to chase them allows you seven attempts to catch one before the attempt becomes futile. The Tie occurs less than 18% of the time in most cases, and when it does occur, you stand to lose nothing if you did not bet on it. Therefore, a better strategy would be not to risk betting on a Tie win at all.
Stake Management
Most, if not all gambling games can benefit from sound money management. The main problem in gambling is not that gamblers never win or win enough at that. The problem is that most gamblers don’t secure what they win when they are up. They get all excited and greed sets in. Before long they have lost all their profits and are leaving the casino with an anorexic bank roll.
Some gamblers have devised elaborate methods and techniques for managing their bankroll. These sensible gamblers understand the importance of bank roll and stake management.
There are many methods of money management; we will only cover a few simple ones here. This is because the amount of money management techniques you know doesn’t necessarily guarantee you success in gambling. It is the application of a money management strategy that guarantees some level of gambling success.
Knowing what to do but not doing it is even worse than not knowing what to do. Therefore, don’t just know your money management system inside out, use it exhaustively too.
The Limited Exit
This money management technique requires self discipline and will power. The process of applying it is as follows:
- Decide on the profit level you want to achieve before you begin gambling (preferably before you leave to go to the casino, or log on to the online casino). 25% to 100% is a good guide. This may seem a small amount. It is meant to seam so. An easily achievable goal means you will finish your gambling sessions earlier and thus be less inclined to let old habits disrupt and distract you from applying your money management strategy.
- Play baccarat until you achieve your predetermined objective, then quit. Play safely; stick to your gambling strategy/ technique or system. Aim for many small wins rather than one large one.
- Once you reach your target, immediately transfer all funds out of your gambling account to avoid temptation.
- Physically leave the area you gamble from and do something totally different–go for a walk, watch TV, cook a meal–anything to avoid returning to gamble some more.
The Gradual Siphon
You can also use a money management system that does not require you to stop gambling. The Gradual Siphon is one such system. It works as follows:
- Decide on a small multiple of your smallest bet (i.e. $5 or $10).
- Ship your bank roll into your casino account for the day. After that transfer, funds should only be withdrawn from your casino account.
- Set your short term focus on making only the small profit ($5 or $10) goal; you decided on. Take no extra risks to make more. Stick to your gambling strategy/plan/technique or system until you reach your target each time.
- Every time you reach your target, ship the profit out of your casino account, back to your credit card or bank account.
- Repeat the process from step 3.
This is a slow and gradual balance building technique. It is imperative that you only ship funds in once, and then from there only allow yourself to withdraw profits. If you lose your entire bank roll at the baccarat table, you must end your session for the day. You must not gamble again until the next day.
- Banker: 105; Player: 112
- Banker: 43; Player: 49
- Banker: 20; Player: 21
- Banker: 17; Player: 7
- Banker: 6; Player: 6
- Banker: 2; Player: 1
- Banker: 1; Player: 0
- Banker: 1; Player: 0
Automated systems
There are many automated Baccarat systems available on the market today. However, not all of them can be relied on to achieve lasting success. If you plan to buy one of these automated or semi-automated baccarat-strategy software systems, make sure the vender offers free trials first. Test the systems first before parting with your money and if you are making your purchase online, make sure you check the ownership details of the site and confirm that you can contact and communicate with the vender before making your purchase. This one area attracts unscrupulous characters offering systems that do not work, and no follow thorough or after sales support. You are welcome to download free trials of my baccarat strategy software to assist you in your online game. You can find this and other gambling systems at www.ultimategamblingsystems.com
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