The 2008 The Grand National
The Grand National is the world’s most famous horse race and arguably one of the most dramatic spectacles in sport. No hole-in-one, penalty shoot out or screaming Formula 1 engine can top the drama of 40 racehorses surging to the first at Aintree. The mythical status of the race in turn attracts more myths, foremost of which is that finding the winner is a complete lottery.
In essence the Grand National is no different from any other jumps handicap. And, just as in those races, the horses whose form and profile indicate they should perform well in the National tend to perform well. To illustrate this point, 13 of the last 18 National winners came from the first 8 in the betting. So there’s certainly no need to dump the form book and start consulting the wife on fancied colour combos. The National may be a tricky puzzle but a lottery it ain’t!
Where the Grand National differs from other races is simply in terms of scale: the fences are bigger, the distance is longer (4 miles 4 furlongs) and the field is larger (40 runners). From the punter’s perspective these factors are in fact very useful in helping to pinpoint a winner. For example not many horses can cope with the larger fences and even fewer are capable of staying the marathon trip.
Let’s take a look at significant trends (based on the last ten runnings of the National) to ascertain the type of horse we want to back. We’ll then apply the profile to this year’s National entries to pinpoint likely winners. The benefit of backing horses at this point of the season (1 month before the race) is that in most cases their odds should be more generous.
Going
6 of the last 10 renewals of the Grand National have been run on good ground, 2 on good to soft, one on soft and one on heavy. These days Aintree tends to avoid heavy showers in April. We should therefore concentrate on good/good to soft ground horses for the race.
Stamina
Broadly speaking National horses fall into 3 categories: Firstly there are those who plod around Chepstow or Uttoxeter in the mud and win by being the only horse not to collapse from exhaustion before the finish line.
Then there are the classier middle distance horses for whom extreme trips are part of a broader repertoire which includes anything upwards of 3 miles.
Finally there are the speculative stamina entries: horses which are unproven over trips in excess of 3 miles but whose owners are desperate for a crack at the big one. These chancers make up a surprising number of the field and rarely even finish because they simply cannot keep running for 4 miles 4 furlongs.
Let’s ignore the chancers and the plodders. The former rarely make it to the finish line and, by the time the latter do, everyone’s been quaffing champagne in the winner’s enclosure for half an hour.
No, we should confine our search to horses from the middle category: stayers which have proven form in high class 3 – 3 ½ mile races like the Hennessy, Becher’s Chase (run over the National fences) or the even longer Irish and Scottish Nationals. It is worth noting that every winner in the last 10 years has won a chase run at 3 miles or over. We can safely discount any horse that hasn’t from our shortlist.
Age
7 of the last ten runnings have been won by horses aged 9 or 10. Horses aged 7 or below have a dreadful record and can be discarded out of hand. 8 and 12 year olds seem to win about once a decade. 11 year olds have a reasonable record. In short we should focus on horses aged 9, 10 and, at a pinch, 11.
Weight
Horses carrying over 11 stone have a poor record in the race. In the last 20 runnings only 2 have managed to defy this burden and neither carried more than a pound over 11 stone. The last top weight to win the race (carrying 12 stone) was the great Red Rum in 1974. Weight is evidently a significant factor and we should consider ‘barring’ horses above 11 stone.
Having said that, this year’s renewal has attracted a high class field which has led to a ‘compression’ in the weights. Usually the bottom weight in the National would carry 10 stone but this year the burden will be at least 10 stone 5. This reduction in the difference between the heavily and lightly weighted horses naturally favours the former. We can therefore set our ‘bar’ at bit above 11 stone.
Aintree Factor
Much used to be made of this phenomenon which indicated that certain horses are exceptionally well suited to the Aintree fences and others not. This is less true today for the simple reason that the fences have been reduced in size.
Nevertheless the National obstacles can find out dodgy jumpers and the track itself favours strong gallopers. Decent track and obstacle form are therefore definite bonuses.
On a more general slant, it makes sense to side with horses which jump well. Last year’s winner Silver Birch had only fallen once in 15 Chase starts. Similarly the previous 4 National winners had each fallen (or in the case of Numbersixvalverde been ‘brought down’) only once. We should be wary of horses which have more than one ‘F’ to their name this season.
Form
An interesting paradox concerning Grand National runners is that horses with indifferent recent form often do well. This is explained by the fact that many trainers aim their best National hopes at races which are likely to put their charges cherry ripe on the big day rather than generate winnings (or raise their handicap mark). Such horses have a decent National record and we should not be put off by lack of recent wins.
Key Races
3 winners of the Becher’s Chase have won the Grand National in the last 10 years. Other important races are the Hennessy Gold Cup (almost half of the last twenty British trained National winners had lined up in this race), the Topham Chase (which last year’s National winner Silver Birch had taken in 2004) and the Irish National.
The Main Contenders
Snowy Mountain (11-1) is shortest in the betting on the basis of his obvious class and potentially lenient weight (10 stone 12). However, he is an 8 year old and as we have seen these have a poor record. The same applies to Butler’s Cabin (16-1) who won last year’s Irish National and boasts plenty of decent form over long distances.
Whilst both these horses might appeal at longer odds for each way purposes (3 of the first 5 home last year were 8 year olds) their age group’s poor win record makes them unappealing as ‘win only’ bets. Both horses are therefore reluctantly overlooked at the current prices.
Mr Pointment (14-1) was the pre weights favourite but has been punished by the handicapper (11 stone 8) for his highly impressive Becher’s Chase win over the National fences in November. Despite ticking all the right boxes (age, preference for good ground, Aintree form, the possible assistance of dual National winning jockey Ruby Walsh) it is hard to see him defying this weight.
Next in the betting is Bewley’s Berry (16-1) who was a length behind Mr Pointment in the Becher’s (receiving 6 lbs) and second in the 2006 renewal. He was travelling well before falling in last year’s National and is clearly the right type for the race, being a classy 10 year old stayer who goes best on good, good/soft ground. Trainer Howard Johnson has declared himself very happy with the 10 stone 11 his charge is due to carry.
Last year’s runner up McKelvey (25-1) has not yet raced this season but on the basis of last season’s exploits certainly merits attention. His absence since last year’s race is not necessarily a cause for concern as his trainer has stated that he intends a light campaign for his charge. Expect one prep race over hurdles.
Point Barrow (25-1) was co-favourite for last year’s National but fell at the first. Though he started this season sluggishly he has recently shown marked improvement in the Grade A Thyestes Chase (4th under top weight). He won the Irish National in 2006 and has been allotted a reasonable 10 stone 10 which has pleased his trainer.
Parsons Legacy (40-1) is an interesting outsider at longer odds. He came 5th in the 2006 Hennessy, has age on his side (10 years old) and has proven himself over the marathon trip of the Scottish National (3rd last year). Furthermore he appreciates good, good/soft ground and has been lightly raced so far this season.
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