The Best Poker Advice You’ll Ever Receive - Part 2
Rule 2: When in doubt early in the hand, fold. When in doubt late in the hand, call.
Astute readers will notice that the first part of this second rule is really an extension of the first rule we discussed (although the first rule only applies to starting hands, while this rule can also be applied to the streets that immediately follow). But the second part is also worth exploring. The basic idea here is when you’re still early in the hand, and you’re unsure as to whether you should call or fold, you’re almost always better off folding. The problem you run into with marginal hands is that you will usually either win a little with them or lose a lot with them, and since it’s usually very tough to determine which of these is the more likely result it’s best to fold and watch the action from the sidelines. At the very best these marginal hands will add a small amount to your win rate, yet they will almost always dramatically increase your variance - and remember, this is usually the best case scenario. When the risk/reward ratio gets this high you’re almost always doing yourself a favor by cutting and running.
Later in the hand, however, the dynamic shifts. This is because there’s usually quite a bit of money in the pot, and while an incorrect call will only cost you one bet, an incorrect fold will cost you the whole pot. Oddly enough, bad players often seem to have an intuitive grasp on this concept, while newer players who are trying to play well are more likely to ignore it. For example, let’s say you’re involved in a big pot with a flush draw, and on the last card you find yourself stuck with a lowly pair of fives. Now your opponent bets, and you’re the last one to act. Should you call? Yes! Even if your opponent is only bluffing a fraction of the time here, your call will show a profit. Unless you’re absolutely sure you’re beat, this hand is worth a call.
One other note: don’t worry if the call looks ‘fishy’ to your opponents, and don’t beat yourself up when your opponent shows you the winning hand. Making ‘thin calls’ like this are an important part of winning poker - so important, in fact, that I know players who otherwise play a very solid brand of poker, but who just can’t seem to part with their chips when they know they’re ‘beat’ on the end. Needless to say these players often have win rates that are significantly below where they would be if they just followed this one simple guideline. Sure, you’ll feel pretty clever 85% of the time when your opponent shows you a flopped set or a big two pair. But you don’t make this call because you expect to win; you make it because the reward you’ll receive when it is correct will far outweigh all the single bets you lost when this call doesn’t win you the pot.
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Posted by georgestam – 20 Oct 2007, 1:17 PM
Again good advice! this is where ive been going wrong