Value Lies with the Underdog
The betting public loves playing favourites. It seems we have a short-sighted mentality that says they we’re betting on the better team even considering the handicap for the underdog. But often the underdog presents much more value. Here are a few reasons why.
First, let’s look at this from a law-of-averages perspective. If you bet the favourite, three things can happen and two are not good. The favourite could lose the game straight up or they could win the game, but not by more points than you had to give up. The only way you win is if your favourite wins the game by more points than you had to give up. So there is a two-out-of-three chance that you will lose your wager.
If you back the underdog, three things can happen and two of those things are in your favour. The underdog could win the game straight up or they could lose the game, but by fewer points than you are receiving. So there is a two-out-of-three chance that you will win your wager.
Two scenarios are common in the sports betting world. First, a favourite comes out and exerts their will on their opponent, getting out to a huge lead.
The second scenario sees the favourite come out flat, with a lack of motivation against what they perceive to be an inferior opponent. Maybe the favourite is coming off a huge win against a division rival and has another rival on deck. The underdog (players are almost always motivated in the dog role) comes out firing and takes the early lead. Many times, the favourite will storm back and escape with the win, but not enough to beat the handicap.
Value also exists with the favourite when they are only marginal favourites, but it is a good idea to back an underdog if the right situation presents much greater value as opposed to betting a favourite just because they appear to be the better team. Remember, the better team doesn’t always win, and sometimes the team that appears to be the better team actually isn’t.
Records can be deceiving. For example, Team Favourite might be 3-0, but they played three teams that have not won a game. Team Underdog might be 0-3, but they played three teams that have not lost a game. Analyse with caution and make an informed decision.
In summary, you shouldn’t bet all favourites or all underdogs. True professional betters wager on primarily underdogs because two out of the three scenarios work in your favour. So while betting all underdogs is not the road to betting riches, it is a good idea to first look at taking the points.
Discuss this with other gamblers at our forum.
