Australian Election Betting Odds Predict Coalition Beating Labour
The latest Australian election odds have exposed just how close the battle for power is between the Coalition and Labour as we near polling day.
Australia will soon be preparing for the 2022 federal election that will pit the Liberal-National Coalition against a surging Labour Party in a contest that political betting sites are following closely.
All 151 seats in the lower House of Representatives are up for grabs, while 40 of the 76 Senate seats are also being contested.
PM Scott Morrison has led the Coalition since 2019 with the slenderest of majorities and could well lose his grip on parliament this time around. A dramatic collapse in the opinion polls since last December has seen Morrison’s chances of retaining his premiership dwindle. In fact, some bookmakers now have the Coalition behind Labour in the battle for power.
The PM has a disapproval rating of 42% amongst Australians – a fall from a 65% approval rating back in February which is supposedly being driven by voter sentiment in Queensland. Anthony Albanese, Labour’s leader, is polling positively at around 41%.
Latest Australian Election Betting Odds
Despite Morrison’s polling figures, betting sites appear to be unwilling to commit to one party with just months to go until the 2022 Australian election. Some bookies have Labour in front, while others are still banking on the Coalition to remain in power.
The irregularity of the Australian federal election betting odds exposes the uncertainty with which the population could be heading to the polls in the first half of 2022.
The shortest price currently available on the Coalition is around 3/4, which boasts an implied probability of 57.1%. Meanwhile, Labour can be backed as short as 4/5 (55.6%).
Australian Election Issues
As we near the election Morrison is naturally seeking opportunities to boost the Coalition’s polling figures – and he is starting to focus on the ‘big issues’ that will dominate the campaigns.
Covid is still a high priority and since NSW and Victoria came out of prolonged lockdowns the government’s approval ratings have risen. Eighty percent of Australians aged 16+ have now had two doses of the Covid vaccine and the Coalition is witnessing a boost akin to that of the UK Conservative party last January when their vaccine roll-out started.
Elsewhere, recent data shows that more Aussies trust the Coalition with the economy (41%) compared to Labour (33%). The next parliament will be strung by overhanging economic issues from the coronavirus pandemic and will be at the forefront of voters’ minds.
How the Australian Election Works
Australians will vote in 2022 for a new federal government, with all seats in the lower chamber and roughly half in the upper chamber being contested.
Voters generally use a ranked system of voting, where each constituent places in order their preferred choice of candidate, with their top choice being Number ‘1’. If a candidate secures a 50% + 1 majority from these first votes, then they win the seat. If not, candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated and any ballot papers that preferred them are re-allocated to the remaining candidates who were cast as a second preference. The process continues in this way until a majority is reached.
Seventy-six seats are required for a majority, at which point the main party’s leader will become prime minister.
Meanwhile, the Senate is elected in roughly the same way and acts as an upper house in parliament, to address, amend and eventually approve bills from the House of Representatives.
The 2022 Australian Federal election is expected to take place by 21 May. It means bookmakers still have a few months to shuffle their Australian election betting prices.
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