The NFL betting season is down to its final four and it just so happens that it’s the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in each conference. As we get set for some AFC and NFC Conference Championships betting this weekend, here is a look at 10 prop bets to consider.
Bet Alvin Kamara at +490 with Karamba.
Kamara had the first score between the teams when they first met this season and I’ll take a flier on him doing it again. He was an absolute beast in that game – especially on the first drive. Kamara had 29 of the 75 yards on that drive while finishing with 82 yards rushing, 34 yards receiving and three touchdowns on the day.
The Rams have issues with running backs as they allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season (worst in the NFL). Of the 12 playoff teams, only the Kansas City Chiefs allowed more production to running backs than the Rams.
After failing to get Kamara involved early against the Eagles, look for the Saints to fix that on Sunday.
Bet Yes at +130 with 888Sport.
The logic from the previous prop bet extends here. The difference here is that 888Sport is offering a prop on if he’ll get into the end zone at all (doesn’t have to be first), and I’ll take a shot at plus-money.
I’m expecting another high-scoring affair between the sides. The Rams and Cowboys combined for six last week. The Rams and Saints can get over this number.
Bet Rams -2 at +165 with Karamba.
I’m going to take a flier with the Rams here. If they win, they should cover the -2, so we’ll get a nice payday if they can cover a field goal.
There are two big changes from the first meeting between the teams: Aqib Talib is back for the Rams and Sheldon Rankins is out for the Saints.
Since 2016, Pro Football Focus rates Talib is the fourth-best corner in the game. Having him back should slow down Michael Thomas, who went off for 211 yards in the first meeting. The Rams had the third-best opponent passer rating (74.5) in the games that Talib played this year and third-worst (111.6) when he was out).
Secondly, losing Rankins will hurt the Saints. Rankins posted career highs for tackles (40) and sacks (eight). He was arguably the team’s best run-stuffer. That’s going to hurt considering the Rams have the league’s third-best rushing attack.
Those are two big differences that could tilt what was mostly a close affair the first time around.
Bet Yes at +425 with 888Sport.
Who could have ever envisioned C.J. Anderson would be getting meaningful carries in the playoffs for the Rams? Forget what you’ve thought, though, as Anderson is one of the hottest running backs in the league. He has at least 123 rushing yards in three straight games and four touchdowns in that span.
While the first two games were with Todd Gurley sidelines, he still had 23 carries last week versus Dallas. He’s a big back at 230 pounds and saw plenty of carries in the red zone – including a fourth and goal with the game on the line. Look for the Rams to stick with him and for him to find the end zone at least once.
Bet Under 61.5 at -186 with 888Sport.
If you’re planning to bet the total, get in early. Early weather reports from the National Weather Service suggest that temperatures at kickoff could be from 10 to well below zero.
Bet Under 7.5 at -250 with Karamba.
Extending the logic from the previous entry, go under for total touchdowns. Yes, these are two dynamic offenses, but the weather will have a huge impact here.
The Chiefs really struggle with opposing running backs. They gave up six touchdowns to opposing runners, which is tied for the most in the NFL. In terms of NFL daily fantasy betting, the Chiefs gave up the third-most fantasy points to opposing backs (only Arizona and San Francisco had more).
The Patriots are going to be feeding James White a lot not only because of the weather but because this is a weakness in the Chiefs defense they’ll scout for.
Bet Under 3.5 at -190 with Karamba.
There are two factors here: The Patriots are not the same team away from home and the Chiefs defense is much better at home. The Pats were 9-0 at home and +105 in points differential. That drops to 3-5 and -19 when away.
As for the Chiefs, they allowed 17.4 points per game at home, which is much lower than the 26.3 they allow overall. Along with the weather, I’m playing the under here.
Bet Chiefs -6.5 at +135 with 888Sport.
I’ll take a shot with the Chiefs winning big here. This year’s version of the Patriots is not as strong as we’ve seen in the past. Secondly, they’re on the road where they’ve really struggled this year. Thirdly, Andy Reid is one guy who seems to always play the Patriots tough.
The Pats defense has allowed 40+ points in a game just seven times in their last 342 contests. Reid’s teams accounted for three of those. I’ll lay a bigger number in case the Chiefs can win big.
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