1000 Guineas 2019 Betting Tips, Odds & Analysis
- Skitter Scatter to win at 13/2 with MoPlay
- Lady Kaya each way at 16/1 with BetHard
The 2019 “1000 Guineas” (Newmarket)
It’s a fantastic week of racing with the Punchestown Festival and the Guineas Festival on at Newmarket. Steve Mullington takes a look through the 1000 Guineas to try and unearth some live chances at juicy odds.
Staged on the Sunday of the Guineas weekend, the fillies’ 1000 Guineas is regarded as a very prestigious race. Like the 2000 Guineas, which is held the day before, it is also one of only five British classic races and the first fillies’ classic race of the season.
What is the 1000 Guineas?
Named after the prize purse when the race was first run in 1814, the 1000 Guineas is run over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile. A tough test for the fillies, the last 2 furlongs of the Rowley Mile always sorts out the champions from the also-rans.
The rarely attempted fillies’ Triple Crown (Guineas, Oaks, St Leger) is even harder to win. Only 9 fillies have ever done so – 8 of that 9 were before 1955. The last filly to win it was Oh So Sharp in 1985.
What do the trends tell us?
- Price – 2 of the last 10 winners were favourites, 6/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- Last Run – 7 of the last 12 winners won on their last start, 4/10 winners had a run in the last 30 days.
- Previous Course Form – 7/10 winners had at least one previous run at Newmarket, 5/10 had at least one previous win at the course.
As is quiet evident from these statistics, course form counts for a lot in this race.
Who are the favourites?
The impressive Nell Gwyn winner Qabala has been all the rage since winning that contest but could her odds be an overreaction? She’s a best-priced 3/1 chance with with the Best Horse Racing Sites if you feel that she’s head and shoulders above this field but just remember that the 11/4 fav last year (Happily) was beaten by a 66/1 shot (Billesdon Brook). It is also worth noting that the last filly to do the Nell Gwyn/1000 Guineas double was back in 2006.
A quick visit to Mo Play’s website may be the order of the day if you want to snap up the 13/2 they are offering on the John Oxx-trained Skitter Scatter.
She began her career beating Sergei Prokofiev over the minimum trip, with the highlight of her excellent two-year-old season being her Group One victory in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at The Curragh.
Oxx, who masterminded Sea The Stars’s classic campaign a decade ago, is incredibly sweet on the filly and she should be on any shortlist that you make for this race.
Recommended Bet: Skitter Scatter to win at 13/2 with MoPlay
The O’Brien factor
Aidan O’Brien has taken the 1,000 Guineas three times in the past 10 years and naturally he’s represented once more on the Rowley Mile, this time with four entries. His best two on paper look to be Just Wonderful and Fairyland, but let’s take a brief look at all of them.
- Just Wonderful ran out the clear winner of the Rockfel Stakes at headquarters last September before being shipped over to the United States to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she finished fourth. The return to Newmarket and a much more suitable surface should play to her strengths.
- Fairyland was a winner of four of her five starts last season, including the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes. She certainly has the best juvenile form on offer here and if she can stay out the trip she should be in the mix.
- Hermosa was last seen finishing second to Royal Meeting in the Group One Criterium International at Chantilly last October. Her form in Group One’s should stand her in good stead having finished third to Skitter Scatter in the Moyglare Stud Stakes and finding only Iridessa too good in the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket.
- Fleeting was last seen in September leading home Richard Hannon’s Star Terms in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. Whether that form equates to much remains to be seen.
The other O’Brien
Rapidly making his mark on the training ranks at Group level is Joseph O’Brien and he holds a live chance here with his filly Iridessa who is 10/1 with MoPlay.
She began last year with a maiden win at Killarney and ended it with a comprehensive win in the Fillies' Mile. In the 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown earlier this month she recorded a third-place finish and she will be a popular choice on Sunday afternoon.
The Shelia Lavery-trained Lady Kaya comes into this race as an underdog but there is absolutely no reason why she should be as big as 16/1 with Bethard. She left the opposition standing in the Guineas Trial and represents great each-way value.
Recommended Bet: Lady Kaya each way at 16/1 with BetHard
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