There’s reason for fans of NFL betting to be excited for this weekend of NFL Conference Championships betting. The NFC Championship game is upon us, and the top two teams in the conference will face off once again for the right to go the Super Bowl.
On Sunday afternoon, the New Orleans Saints will host the Los Angeles Rams in what is likely to be a shoot-out in Louisiana. These two teams met earlier in the season and scored a combined 80 points to go along with nearly 1,000 yards of total offense. If the NFC Championship game is anything like their previous meeting, we are in for a treat.
One of the only downsides to this upcoming weekend is that there are only two games to bet on. However, there are some very intriguing lines and props to consider in the NFC matchup.
As I have said all season long, I find it difficult to believe that anyone is going to go to the Superdome and beat the Saints. They finished the season with the best record and the No. 1 seed due to the outstanding play of Drew Brees. With Brees playing at home once again, it’s looking likely that he will make his second career Super Bowl.
Since 2008, Brees has won 71.7 percent of his games at home and lost only one game there this season (Week 1 versus Tampa Bay). The Saints are nearly unstoppable at home, winning 15 of their last 17 games at home with one of those losses coming in a meaningless Week 17 game in which Brees did not play.
Given the crowd noise and how well Brees has played this season, I am picking the Saints to beat the Rams. Give me the Saints’ money line at -182 at 888sport.
Playoff football tends to breed closer, lower scoring games. However, this game will feature two of the best offensive minds in NFL history. It wouldn’t be quite a shock to see both of these teams exceed 30 points, especially when you consider this game will be played in a dome.
However, the public is going to see that 80 points scored in the previous meeting and will heavily bet on the over, and that is why I’m going to fade the public and go with the under.
The under has hit in six of the last eight games for New Orleans and five out of the previous six games for the Rams on the road. Both the Rams and the Saints have underrated defenses and their offenses have struggled over the past few weeks.
While everyone expects fireworks, don't be surprised if these two teams crank up the defensive intensity and keep the total under 57 points this week. Take the under with Betfair.
While I like the Saints to win this game, I fully expect it to be close. Given how balanced the Rams offense is, they are likely going to be able to keep up with the Saints offense, especially given the injury to Saints defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins.
If the Rams do win this game, it won’t be by more than a few points. So, if you are inclined to bet the Rams money line, I urge you to consider betting the margin of victory. Via Karamba, the Rams are +390 to win with a margin of victory between 1-6 points. If you think the Rams can win this game, jump on this bet with Karamba.
One of the biggest weaknesses for the Rams right now is their secondary. While they have talented “names” in the back-end, they just aren’t playing up to an elite level. That is great news for Saints receiver Michael Thomas, who is +350 to catch two or more touchdowns this week at 888Sport.
In a game that has an over/under of 57, there is going to be many touchdowns scored. In their first meeting, Thomas caught 12 passes for 211 yards and one touchdown. The Rams simply had no answer for him, and I expect that to be the case once again.
Bet that Thomas will torch them again and will find the end zone at least twice at +350 with 888Sport.
One of the strategies that home teams love to do is to defer the ball to the second half. Opponents typically like to start with the ball on the road to get a drive going and get some points on the board. I fully expect that scenario to play out on Sunday as the Rams will likely start the game with the ball in their hands.
Rams coach Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in the league at scripting his opening drive, and I expect them to go and get points early in this game. At +100 with Karamba, I’m taking the Rams to open the game with the first points.
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