All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

David Caraviello

January 11th, 2019

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When the Philadelphia Eagles stunned the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII, it seemed like an upset for the ages. In reality, it was simply the continuation of an NFL betting trend.

Underdogs have dominated in Super Bowl betting for almost two decades during the 2000s and 2010s, winning against the spread in the NFL’s championship game 12 times in 17 years.

Every Super Bowl Against the Spread Result

Super Bowl ATS Betting Trends

The Eagles were four-point underdogs to Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots in 2018, but with their 41-33 victory became the fifth underdog to win against the spread in seven years, and the eighth to win in the 11 years.

Favorites once dominated in Super Bowls, winning 10 of 12 from 1992-2001 in what was the game’s blowout era — due in part to NFC supremacy over the Buffalo Bills, who not only lost four Super Bowls but went 0-4 against the spread. A tough run, but they at least had those conference championships to enjoy.

Things began to change in 2002, when the then-upstart Patriots knocked off the St. Louis Rams, who at -14 were the largest Super Bowl favorite since 1997.

That 20-17 New England victory kicked off a span of four straight Super Bowls in which underdogs won against the spread. Favorites haven’t won three straight in the NFL’s premier event since 1999-2001.

And the recent run of underdog victories had closed the overall record through 53 Super Bowls: 26 victories by favorites against the spread, 25 victories by underdogs, and two pushes.

Every Super Bowl Over/Under Result

Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends

Eagles backup quarterback Nick Foles and the Philly Special didn’t just continue a trend of underdog victories — they also helped push the Super Bowl total over the over/under number of 49, marking the fifth time in six years that the over paid off.

The only Super Bowl to finish under the number in that span was Denver’s 24-10 upset victory over the Panthers, a game that carried a total of 43.5. The 2019 Super Bowl also went under, with a record-low score of 13-3 coming in way under the 56.5 total.

The under hit four straight years between 2005-08, but since then has won just three times in the past decade — in New Orleans’ upset of Indianapolis in 2010, the New York Giants’ upset of the Patriots in 2012, and the Broncos’ victory over Carolina in 2016.

The Super Bowl over/under total has been at 43.5 or higher since 2004, the last year the title game featured an over/under in the 30s. In the 52 games from 1968-2019 — there was no over/under for Super Bowl I — the over has hit 26 times and the under 25 times, with one push.

Super Bowl Money Trends

The amount of money wagered on the Super Bowl in Nevada sportsbooks has increased over the past decade, with the 2018 game setting a record with a handle of $158.6 million, according to the state Gaming and Control Board.

That bettered the previous record from 2017 by over $20 million, largely due to the growing popularity of prop bets and in-game wagering, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported.

In 2009, the amount of money wagered on the game in Nevada was $81 million. The handle cracked the $90 million mark in 2012, went over the $100 million barrier in 2014, and surpassed $130 million in 2016.

The Eagles’ upset of the Patriots also proved costly to top NFL bookmakers: Nevada casinos won just 0.7 percent of the $158.6 million wagered on the game, according to the Gaming Control Board, narrowly avoiding losing money on the NFL title matchup for just the third time in 28 years.

From 1991-2018, since Nevada sports books began tracking the game, sportsbooks in the state lost money just twice: on the Giants’ upset of the Patriots in 2008, and the 49ers’ blowout of the Chargers in 1998, according to the Review-Journal.

2018’s win percentage was the smallest for Nevada books since they won just 0.8 percent in 2011, when Green Bay beat Pittsburgh.

2019 Playoff Trends

Among the teams in the 2019 playoff field, the most reliable cover had been the Chicago Bears, who were 12-4 against the spread — until their last-gasp field goal attempt went dink-dank-doink and allowed the 6.5-point underdog Eagles to pull yet another postseason upset during NFL Wild Card weekend.

It marked the first time the Bears had failed to cover since an outright loss to the Giants five weeks earlier.

Of the teams playing in the NFL Divisional round, the Saints and Chargers had the best records against the spread at 10-6 and 10-7, respectively. New Orleans, which earlier in the season had won nine straight and 10 of 11 against the spread, finished the regular season with three straight ATS losses.

2019 Playoff Teams ATS