All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

David Caraviello

January 25th, 2021

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When the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the 2020 Super Bowl, it marked the second straight season in which the favorite covered, continuing to reverse what had become an NFL betting trend in recent years.

Underdogs had dominated in Super Bowl betting for almost two decades during the 2000s and 2010s, winning against the spread in the NFL’s championship game 12 times in 17 years before the Chiefs and the New England Patriots in 2019 stemmed the tide.

Every Super Bowl Against the Spread Result

Super Bowl ATS Betting Trends

The Chiefs, who enter Super Bowl 2021 as 3-point favorites at most top NFL betting sites, looks to make it three straight for the favorites. The Eagles were the last underdog to win, as four-point underdogs to Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots in 2018. Their 41-33 victory became the fifth underdog to win against the spread in seven years, and the eighth to win in 11 years.

Favorites once dominated in Super Bowls, winning 10 of 12 from 1992-2001 in what was the game’s blowout era — due in part to NFC supremacy over the Buffalo Bills, who not only lost four Super Bowls but went 0-4 against the spread. A tough run, but they at least had those conference championships to enjoy.

Things began to change in 2002, when the then-upstart Patriots knocked off the St. Louis Rams, who at -14 were the largest Super Bowl favorite since 1997.

That 20-17 New England victory kicked off a span of four straight Super Bowls in which underdogs won against the spread. Favorites haven’t won three straight in the NFL’s premier event since 1999-2001.

And the recent run of underdog victories had closed the overall record through 54 Super Bowls: 27 victories by favorites against the spread, 25 victories by underdogs and two pushes.

Every Super Bowl Over/Under Result

Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends

The Chiefs and 49ers put some points on the board, but with a high over/under set on the game it was not enough to allow Over bettors to cash.

In Super Bowl 54, the Patriots and Rams combined for just 16 points in Super Bowl 53, the lowest scoring Super Bowl in history. It also was the biggest gap between actual total and the sportsbooks' over/under line in history at 40 points. The result ended a trend of overs at five in six Super Bowls.

The only Super Bowl to finish under the number in that span was Denver’s 24-10 upset victory over the Panthers, a game that carried a total of 43.5. The under hit four straight years between 2005-08, but since then has won just five times in 12 seasons .

The Super Bowl over/under total has been at 43.5 or higher since 2004, the last year the title game featured an over/under in the 30s. In the 54 games from 1968-2020 — there was no over/under for Super Bowl I — the over has hit 26 times and the under 26 times, with one push.