All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

David Caraviello

January 3rd, 2020

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When the New England Patriots captured their sixth Super Bowl in 2019 as a slight favorite over the Los Angeles Rams, it bucked what had become an NFL betting trend in recent years.

Underdogs have dominated in Super Bowl betting for almost two decades during the 2000s and 2010s, winning against the spread in the NFL’s championship game 12 times in 17 years.

Every Super Bowl Against the Spread Result

Super Bowl ATS Betting Trends

When the Patriots defeated the Rams in 2019 as 2.5-point favorites, it halted what had become a strong underdog trend. The Eagles were four-point underdogs to Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots in 2018, but with their 41-33 victory became the fifth underdog to win against the spread in seven years, and the eighth to win in 11 years.

Favorites once dominated in Super Bowls, winning 10 of 12 from 1992-2001 in what was the game’s blowout era — due in part to NFC supremacy over the Buffalo Bills, who not only lost four Super Bowls but went 0-4 against the spread. A tough run, but they at least had those conference championships to enjoy.

Things began to change in 2002, when the then-upstart Patriots knocked off the St. Louis Rams, who at -14 were the largest Super Bowl favorite since 1997.

That 20-17 New England victory kicked off a span of four straight Super Bowls in which underdogs won against the spread. Favorites haven’t won three straight in the NFL’s premier event since 1999-2001.

And the recent run of underdog victories had closed the overall record through 53 Super Bowls: 26 victories by favorites against the spread, 25 victories by underdogs and two pushes.

Every Super Bowl Over/Under Result

Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends

The Patriots and Rams combined for just 16 points in Super Bowl 53, the lowest scoring Super Bowl in history. It also was the biggest gap between actual total and the sportsbooks' over/under line in history at 40 points. The result ended a trend of overs at five in six Super Bowls.

The only Super Bowl to finish under the number in that span was Denver’s 24-10 upset victory over the Panthers, a game that carried a total of 43.5.

The under hit four straight years between 2005-08, but since then has won just four times in 11 seasons — in New Orleans’ upset of Indianapolis in 2010, the New York Giants’ upset of the Patriots in 2012, the Broncos’ victory over Carolina in 2016 and the 2019 Super Bowl

The Super Bowl over/under total has been at 43.5 or higher since 2004, the last year the title game featured an over/under in the 30s. In the 52 games from 1968-2019 — there was no over/under for Super Bowl I — the over has hit 26 times and the under 25 times, with one push.

Super Bowl Money Trends

The amount of money wagered on the Super Bowl in Nevada sportsbooks has increased over the past decade, with the 2018 game setting a record with a handle of $158.6 million, according to the state Gaming and Control Board. In 2019, that number slipped slightly to about $146 million.

In 2009, the amount of money wagered on the game in Nevada was $81 million. The handle cracked the $90 million mark in 2012, went over the $100 million barrier in 2014, and surpassed $130 million in 2016.

The Eagles’ upset of the Patriots in 2018 proved costly to top NFL bookmakers: Nevada casinos won just 0.7 percent of the $158.6 million wagered on the game, according to the Gaming Control Board, narrowly avoiding losing money on the NFL title matchup for just the third time in 28 years. Nevada’s sportsbooks bounced back to net almost $11 million in 2019.

From 1991-2018, since Nevada sports books began tracking the game, sportsbooks in the state lost money just twice: on the Giants’ upset of the Patriots in 2008, and the 49ers’ blowout of the Chargers in 1998, according to the Review-Journal.

Sportsbooks in New Jersey reported a much small handle than Nevada in 2019, checking in with about $35 million in wagers. They also took it on the chin with many backing the Patriots, losing $4.6 million on the game. That said, William Hill US said its Garden State sportsbooks had its best day to that point, broke even and had a record number of mobile sign-ups.