Arkle Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Arkle Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 ARKLE NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

  • Finished first two in one of last three starts
  • Finished first three last time out
  • Won, or beaten no more than three lengths, last time out
  • Two or more runs that season
  • Aged between six and eight

Get the latest Arkle Novices Chase Odds here

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>> Click For Arkle Novices' Chase 2019 Betting Tips


Did Trends Win Last Year's Arkle Novices' Chase?

On the trends last year, only Footpad and Petit Mouchoir made the Arkle Novices' Chase shortlist, with Footpad going on to record a first Cheltenham Festival win by 14 lengths

The Willie Mullins-trained star was well clear on trends, winning two of the ‘Key Races’ (see below) - the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at Leopardstown and the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at the same track - victories which saw him go odds-on in the Cheltenham betting.

Petit Mouchoir hit a lot of trends for the Arkle, but had been beaten too far by Footpad last time out to be taken seriously. He went on to be third, fitting the 'Place Trends' well.


KEY ARKLE NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Were aged between five and eight
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Had run at least three times in the last 12 months
  • Had two or more starts in that season
  • Were running within 90 days of their last run
  • Finished in the first three last time out

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Were aged between six and eight
  • Had between one and four novice chase starts
  • Had won on a left-handed track
  • Won, or were beaten no more than 3 lengths, last time out

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were Irish or French-bred
  • Were officially rated 152+
  • Had run between three and five tims in that season
  • Had won over the distance
  • Won last time out

The last 26 win and place positions

26/26 placed horses

  • Were aged between six and eight
  • Had won on a galloping track

25/26 placed horses

  • Won one of their last three starts
  • Had run between three and seven times in the last 12 months
  • Ran no more than 90 days ago
  • Finished in the first three last time out

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Arkle Novices Chase)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Irish Arkle (G1)LeopardstownFootpad (2018), Douvan (2016), Un Des Sceaux (2015)Trifolium (2014), Realt Dubh (2011)
Game Spirit Chase (G2)NewburyAltior (2017), Sprinter Sacre (2012) 
Racing Post Novice Chase (G1)LeopardstownSizing Europe (2010)Ordinary World (2017), Sizing John (2016), Champagne Fever (2014), Baily Green (2013)
Wayward Lad Novices' Chase (G2)KemptonSimonsig (2013)God's Own (2015)
    

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Willie Mullins 10 3 30 -5.25 1
Nicky Henderson 11 3 27 -6.49 3
Henry De Bromhead 7 1 14 - 2
Phillip Hobbs 4 1 25 3.00 1

WATCH: Racehour Arkle Novices' Chase Preview


How Footpad Won 2018's Arkle Novices' Chase

Footpad justified 5/6 favouritism, giving backers only one scare to remain unbeaten over fences with a 14 length win over Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir.

He had run thrice before that season, winning novice chases by a combined 27 lengths, including two Grade 1s at Leopardstown. With a rating of 162, the Willie Mullins-trained French-bred was the top-rated in the field, and clearly the one to beat.


2.10 CHELTENHAM - 2018 ARKLE NOVICES CHASE RESULT

  1. Footpad 5/6f
  2. Brain Power 14/1
  3. Petit Mouchoir 4/1

Renown for jumping well, Footpad had watchers gasping when he blundered at the sixth fence. Petit Mouchoir led them over that, Saint Calvados not far behind as the Gigginstown House Stud colours drew clear four fences out.

In behind though, Ruby Walsh had recomposed Footpad. They cruised to the lead around the bend before the second-last, and were never seen again, Brain Power nicking second from Petit Mouchoir metres from the line.


Cheltenham 2019 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 - Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase

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Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

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