Australian Open 2019 Betting: Quarterfinal Underdogs to Back

Carl Zee

January 21st, 2019

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Quick Tips

• Stefanos Tsitsipas to defeat Bautista Agut 23/25 on Unibet
• Francis Tiafoe to defeat Nadal 12/1 on Unibet

The Australian Open rolls into the quarterfinal, and two tennis betting underdogs are emerging on the men’s side of the bracket.

It's always fun to predict the possible underdogs in Australian Open betting - or any tournament for that matter. But when that underdog reaches the quarterfinal, it's time to consider them a true contender.

Greek player Stefanos Tsitsipas scored himself a massive upset in the round of 16 by knocking off defending Australian Open champion Roger Federer in four sets. The #14 seed managed to get the better of Federer via two tiebreaks and a single break the entire match.

The Cinderella story further down the bracket is American Francis Tiafoe. The unseeded American was expected to play 2 matches and head off for French Open qualifying. Instead, he took down #5 seed Kevin Anderson in the second round and won his round of 16 match on his 21st birthday.

Realistic Underdog: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas is currently listed as 12/1 odds to win the tournament on Ladbrokes. While the Greek might not be the biggest longshot in the tournament, he’s the lowest odds with an upset over a top 4 seeded player, despite being a slight underdog in his quarterfinal match.

The #16 seed in the tournament is offered on Unibet at 23/25 odds to defeat Spaniard Robert Bautista Agut in the quarterfinal, who is favored 17/20. The match is expected by bookmakers and bettors to be a close one, as odds shifted during the writing of this article from Tsitsipas favored at 4/5 and Bautista Agut at even odds to set Bautista Augt as the new favorite.

Despite the shift in the individual match, Tsitsipas is offered at shorter odds to win the whole tournament over Bautista Agut. Of course, Bautista Agut wouldn’t be a bad bet either, offered at 25/1 and boasting wins over Andy Murray, #10 seed Karen Khachanov, and #6 seed Marin Cilic. But for the value of the quarterfinal, Tsitsipas comes in as the more rested of the two men and in slightly better form.

The Cinderella: Francis Tiafoe

Better believe this is a longshot, as Francis Tiafoe has the longest odds of the remaining men at 66/1 on Ladbrokes. But Tiafoe is having the run of his life in Australia. The world #30 just turned 21 on Saturday, and he celebrated by knocking off the tournament’s #20 seed Grigor Dimitrov in 4 sets.

That’s not even Tiafoe’s most impressive win of the tournament. In the second round, the American pulled off the first shock of the tournament by dropping #5 seed and world #5 Kevin Anderson in 4 sets, and not once reaching a tiebreak during the match.

Tiafoe has been an underdog for most of the tournament. Vs Dimitrov, he was offered as high as 2/1. He was a slight underdog against his third round opponent Andreas Seppi, and a monster 4/1 underdog against Anderson.

Of course, he now faces the buzz saw that is Rafael Nadal. Nadal has yet to drop a set, and is favored 1/25 to defeat Tiafoe. Not even Novak Djokovic is as heavily favorited over Kei Nishikori (the Serbian is favored 1/10 to win on Unibet). For those wishing to bet on Tiafoe to defeat Nadal, his odds are 12/1 on Unibet.

Why would anyone want to pick Tiafoe? Well, 12/1 is hard to argue with for a guy who defeated last year's Wimbledon runner-up, even if he is playing Nadal. The Spanish legend might be going through a career revival, but Tiafoe has youth on his side, and is playing some of the most creative tennis seen in this year's tournament. Intangibles to consider, Tiafoe is playing with house money, so he can continue to play the entertainer that's served him well through the tournament.

Plus, 12/1 odds? A small bet wins big.