Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

  • Aged five or six
  • Last run at least 31 days ago
  • Finished first two last time out
  • Won over at least 2m4f
  • Won twice on galloping tracks

Get the latest Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Odds here

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>> Click For Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 2019 Betting Tips


Did Trends Win Last Year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle?

On the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle trends last year, the shortlist consisted of Samcro and Next Destination, that pair filling first and third at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival.

Samcro had ticked every single box under '15-Year-Trends' and '10-Year-Trends', going unbeaten in a point-to-point, three bumpers, a Punchestown maiden hurdle, Navan Grade 3 and Leopardstown Grade 1. He was only six and had won from 2m-2m4f, on ground described as good-to-yielding, right the way through to heavy.

The winner lined up top rated of the 14-runner field at 155, making him officially upwards of 5lbs better than any of his rivals, so it was no surprise then that he was sent of 8/11 favourite in the Cheltenham betting, and duly obliged.

But the 150-rated Next Destination, who finished third, had also fulfilled every trends requirement; He had won three times on galloping tracks - Fairyhouse, Naas and Navan - winning both hurdle outings over 2m3f and 2m4f, including a Grade 2 last time out.

The second Black Op was not shortlisted because he was aged seven, but in fact this son of Sandmason was close to fitting the profile, having run in three hurdle races, winning over 2m5f on a galloping track. He had finished second last time out over almost course-and-distance.


KEY BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Were aged five or six
  • Had not run for at least 31 days
  • Finished in the first three last time out, 11 winning

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 142 or higher, the last seven rated above 145
  • Finished in the first two last time out
  • Won one of their last three starts
  • Had won over at least 2m4f
  • Won at least twice on a galloping track
  • Had run 2-4 times in novice hurdles
  • Last ran between 31-75 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Won, or were beaten no more than a neck, last time out
  • Had won two or three hurdle races
  • Were beaten over hurdles a maximum of twice
  • Had won on a left-handed course
  • Last ran in a Graded hurdle
  • Last ran in a novice hurdle

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Won last time out
  • Had won a Graded race

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

  • Had run no more than seven times in the last 12 months
  • Were running within 90 days of their last start

29/30 placed horses

  • Were officially rated 140 or higher
  • Finished in the first two last time out
  • Had won on a galloping track

28/30 placed horses

  • Had run no more than four times that season
  • Had won on a left-handed course

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Classic Novices' Hurdle (G2)CheltenhamYanworth (2016), The New One (2013)Black Op (2018, Rathvinden (2014), Rock On Ruby (2011), Diamond Harry (2009)
Deloitte Novices' Hurdle (G1)LeopardstownSamcro (2018), Windsor Park (2015)Nichols Canyon (2015)
Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle (G2)HaydockPeddlers Cross (2010)Neon Wolf (2017), Itsafreebee (2016)
Slaney Novice Hurdle (G1)NaasNoneNext Destination (2018), Rule The World (2013), Monksland (2012)

KEY RACE TRAINERS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Willie Mullins 23 3 13 -13.00 6
Mouse Morris 4 1 25 4.00 1
Dermot Weld 3 1 33 2.50 1

WATCH: Racehour Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Preview


How Samcro Won Last Year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

It was all about Gigginstown House Stud's unbeaten Samcro in the lead up to the 2018 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle and the six-year-old did not disappoint.

Sent off the 8/11 favourite, Samcro was going well three under Jack Kennedy three hurdles from home. Cruising around Vision Des Glos to take the lead turning for home, he was easily ridden clear, staying on up the the hill to win by a widening 2¾ lengths.


1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2018 BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE RESULT

  1. Samcro 8/11f
  2. Black Op 8/1
  3. Next Destination 4/1

Staying on dourly, the Tom George-trained Black Op finished best of the rest, overcoming some clumsy jumping to beat Next Destination by five lengths.

That Willie Mullins-trained third had been sixth at the final flight, galloping on through tired horses to pip stablemate Scarpeta by a neck, fellow Mullins inmate Duc Des Genievres finishing a further length back in fifth.


Cheltenham 2019 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper

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Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of Australia's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully licensed in Australia they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

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