We’ve reached the halfway mark of the 2018 NFL season. It’s a critical week for a number of teams – like the Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals – as they try to make their move toward the playoffs.
And when it comes to NFL betting, they’re all involved in our weekly total picks of the week.
Over/under total: 44 at Karamba
We’re looking at a total of 44 in this game and there’s good reason to like the under. For starters, the Ravens are a much more effective team on offense when they’re at home. They average 19.8 points per game on the road compared to 32.3 at home.
Beyond that, the strength of each defense seems to meet the strength of the offenses. For Carolina, their offense needs to run the ball to have success. However, the Ravens are fifth in yards per carry allowed (3.8).
The Ravens also need to run the ball to keep the pressure off of Joe Flacco but the Panthers are ninth in rushing yards per game. Look for an ugly game here where we see more field goals than touchdowns. Take under 44 with Karamba.
Over/under total: 54.5 at 888Sport
A lot of people have been betting the Tampa Bay overs, but last week the Bucs fell short. They should get back on track this week.
The Bucs offense offers a very good passing game, but their drives tend to stall because they never have balance. They have just 513 rushing yards so far this season, which is the second-fewest in the NFL.
However, the Bengals run defense is very welcoming as they’re allowing 5.0 yards per carry (29th in the NFL) and 128.7 rushing yards per game (26th). Tampa Bay should find a little bit of balance.
As for the Bucs defense, they allowed 23 points last week, a number that all but one of their opponents have cleared this season. The Bucs are giving up 32.7 points per game this season. Look for the Bengals to get back on track here, score in or near the 30s and the Bucs to do their part too.
Bet over 54.5 with 888Sport.
Over/under total: 43 at 888Sport
The 49ers were terrible against the Rams this past weekend, losing 39-10 and not even getting garbage touchdowns when the Rams simply did not have to extend themselves defensively.
The Niners look completely lost and are 20th in the NFL in scoring offense (22.6 points per game), but that ranking of No. 20 includes the games in which Jimmy Garoppolo played. If you adjusted that ranking for the games in which Garoppolo has not played, the scoring average would be worse (21.3).
But the better reason to bet the under here is that the Cardinals are a total mess. They just fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy after a disastrous Thursday loss to the Denver Broncos in which they were down 28-3 early in the second quarter and basically quit.
The offensive line is arguably the worst in the NFL, and young quarterback Josh Rosen – like a typical rookie – is not able to function in the NFL if he gets absolutely no help from his line. This is a team which has to seriously consider firing first-year head coach Steve Wilks.
In the previous meeting this season, we saw the Cardinals score 28 points but that was on the strength of five 49ers turnovers, two of which went for touchdowns. If the 49ers clean up those mistakes, Arizona won’t do much scoring here. Grab under 43 with 888Sport.
Over/under total: 52 at Karamba
There’s no question that the Saints have a prolific offense, but the unit is different on the road. New Orleans scored just seven points through three quarters this past Sunday at Baltimore. They performed similarly against the New York Giants, scoring 12 first-half points but finishing with 33 in the game. This week, they’re facing one of the two toughest defenses they’ve faced this year.
On the other side of the ball, the Saints defense isn’t getting much love, but they’re 10th overall and lead the league in rushing yards per game allowed.
As for the Vikings, they lead the league in third down (allowing just 23.4% conversions), are fourth in yards per carry (3.7) and seventh in opponent completion percentage (61.9%). And they could also get Everson Griffen back. He led the team in sacks last year.
Bet the under with Karamba on this one . While there are plenty of quality offensive weapons, the defense will be the ones who dictate the pace.
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