Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 31st, 2019

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TOP 5 NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

• Ran in no more than 5 chases
• Finished in first three last time out
• If contested handicap chase, won or placed at least once
• Had run over at least 2m4f
• Last ran 17-58 days ago

Get the latest Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Novices' Handicap Chase?

Applying the key Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase trends to last seasons's field created a short-list of four, two going on to take first and second in another cracking Cheltenham betting heat.

As the 10-year and 15-year trends show below, this is one of the tightest betting affairs at the Cheltenham Festival, with the winner rarely priced at odds bigger than 12/1 or featuring outside the top six in the betting.

The 5/1 favourite A Plus Tard and 6/1 next best Tower Bridge therefore had to make the trends short-list, each having run just three times over fences in novice chases, including over the race distance of 2m4f.

They were both second on their last run, and Tower Bridge had previous Cheltenham Festival form, finishing fifth in the 2018 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. What they lacked in chasing experience, they made up for over hurdles, with plenty of big fields contested.

The other two trends picks were 10th Highway One O One, who was second last time out in a chase at Cheltenham that has proven a good trial, and Lough Derg Spirit, who fit the profile, but was beaten by the soft ground and pulled up.

KEY NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Had run 3-6 times that season
• Were officially rated 132 or higher*
• Barring Hunt Ball, had won 0-2 chases

*race open only to horses rated 140 or less up to 2018, when cap changed to 145

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had run in up to nine chases, eight winning
• Had run over at least 2m4f - 5 won
• Had an average rating of 139
• Last ran 17-58 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were officially rated 137 or higher
• Featured in the top six in the betting, at odds no bigger than 12/1
• Had run in no more than 5 chases, and maximum of 4 handicaps, if any
• Had run just 3-5 times that season

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had won a chase
• Were aged seven or younger
• Finished in the first three last time out
• Carried at least 11st 4lb to victory
• Had run at Cheltenham before - 4 over fences, 1 winning

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

• Had three or more starts that season
• Last ran no more than 90 days ago

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last race contested prior to the Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase)

KEY RACE TRAINERS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase Preview

How A Plus Tard Won Last Year's Novices' Handicap Chase

A Plus Tard made almost all of the running to give jockey Rachael Blackmore a first Cheltenham Festival victory in the 2019 Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase.

Sent off the 5/1 favourite, the French-bred romped to an emphatic 16-length win, taking the led before the penultimate fence and scampering further and further clear up the Cheltenham hill.

4.50 CHELTENHAM - 2019 CENTENARY NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE RESULT

1. A Plus Tard 5/1f
2. Tower Bridge 6/1
3. Ben Dundee 33/1
4. The Russian Doyen 20/1

Fellow Irish raiders Tower Bridge and Ben Dundee came home next, with the Colin Tizzard-trained The Russian Doyen back in fourth, having led as A Plus Tard made his charge.

Cheltenham 2020 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 - Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase