Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival Novices' Handicap Chase.
We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this 2m4 1/2f Festival test, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.
What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Cheltenham Novices' Handicap Chase, just as they did last year when highlighting first and second, A Plus Tard and Tower Bridge.
Scroll down to find out how the trends found them, and full details of all the Cheltenham Novices' Handicap Chase trends worth following.
Applying the key Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase trends to last seasons's field created a short-list of four, two going on to take first and second in another cracking Cheltenham betting heat.
As the 10-year and 15-year trends show below, this is one of the tightest betting affairs at the Cheltenham Festival, with the winner rarely priced at odds bigger than 12/1 or featuring outside the top six in the betting.
The 5/1 favourite A Plus Tard and 6/1 next best Tower Bridge therefore had to make the trends short-list, each having run just three times over fences in novice chases, including over the race distance of 2m4f.
They were both second on their last run, and Tower Bridge had previous Cheltenham Festival form, finishing fifth in the 2018 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. What they lacked in chasing experience, they made up for over hurdles, with plenty of big fields contested.
The other two trends picks were 10th Highway One O One, who was second last time out in a chase at Cheltenham that has proven a good trial, and Lough Derg Spirit, who fit the profile, but was beaten by the soft ground and pulled up.
The last 15 winners…
*race open only to horses rated 140 or less up to 2018, when cap changed to 145
The last 10 winners…
Nine of the last 10 winners…
Eight of the last 10 winners…
40/40 placed horses
(Last race contested prior to the Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase)
Key Race | Racecourse | Winners | Place Finishers |
---|---|---|---|
January Novices' Handicap (Class 2) | Cheltenham | Mister Whittaker (2018), Irish Cavalier (2015), Rajdhani Express (2013) | Generous Ransom (2015), Ackertac (2013) |
Handicap Chase (G3) | Kempton | Present View (2014), Hunt Ball (2012) | None |
Flying Bolt Novices' Chase (G3) | Navan | Tully East (2017) | None |
Killiney Novice Chase (G3) | Punchestown | A Plus Tard (2019) | Ben Dundee (2019) |
Scottish Future Champions Novice Chase (Class 3) | Musselburgh | Divers (2011) | Barney Dawn (2018) |
Trainer | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L | Places |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Phillip Hobbs | 9 | 1 | 11 | 4.00 | 1 |
Nicky Henderson | 18 | 1 | 6 | -1.00 | 4 |
Gordon Elliott | 5 | - | - | -5.00 | 1 |
Paul Nicholls | 10 | - | - | -10.00 | 1 |
A Plus Tard made almost all of the running to give jockey Rachael Blackmore a first Cheltenham Festival victory in the 2019 Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase.
Sent off the 5/1 favourite, the French-bred romped to an emphatic 16-length win, taking the led before the penultimate fence and scampering further and further clear up the Cheltenham hill.
Fellow Irish raiders Tower Bridge and Ben Dundee came home next, with the Colin Tizzard-trained The Russian Doyen back in fourth, having led as A Plus Tard made his charge.
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle
14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy
14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase
15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE
16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
16:50 - Novices' Handicap Chase
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