Champion Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Champion Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

BEST 2021 CHELTENHAM CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS

  • Last ran more than 31 days ago
  • Ran at Cheltenham before
  • Aged between seven and 10
  • Won at least one Grade 1
  • Won at least five chases


Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Champion Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Cheltenham Champion Chase.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Champion Chase, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Champion Chase.

Scroll down to read full details of all the other Champion Chase trends to follow, beyond the top five.


Get the latest Cheltenham Champion Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Champion Chase?

On the trends last year, there were only two horses that made the Champion Chase shortlist: Defi Du Seuil and Politologue

Defi Du Seuil, a six-time Cheltenham winner, with two Festival wins, was without doubt the number one pick on trends, hitting every maker, including winning Key Race the Clarence House Chase last time out.

He was sent off the 2/5 favourite, never travelled well and was beaten before the penultimate fence, proving that even if you are the best horse in the race, you still have to be on a going day to win.

Winner Politologue fit the Place Trends perfectly and only missed one of the Top 5, having failed to finish in the first three last time out.

It did raise questions that he had not won since 2018, and had not run for a full 95 days, with trends showing winners tend to have had their last run within the last 80 days.

However, his experience level hit the trends, and so did his ability, the nine-year-old having won two Grade 1 chases, and finished second to the mighty Altior in the 2019 Champion Chase. He was also trained by one of the race's Key Trainers Paul Nicholls.

Second Dynamite Dollars came from the same stable, but did not fit the key experience and fitness trends from the last 10 years, having only run in five chases, and only twice in the last 12 months. He had also only won four chases, not the required five.

It's important to note that two-time winner Altior and Willie Mullins-trained fancy Chacun Pour Soi were late non runners. Altior would have been a strong pick on trends, but Chacun Pour Soi did not have enough experience, based on the 10-Year and 15-Year trends.

This year, he does.



KEY CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Had run three or more times in the last 12 months
  • Had won on a left-handed track
  • Last ran more than 31 days ago
  • Had won over the distance

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Were aged between 7 and 10
  • Were officially rated 159+
  • Had won at least one Grade 1 and one Grade 2
  • Had seven or more starts over fences
  • Had won at least five times over fences
  • Had run at least once in that season
  • Completed their last run (did not fall or pull up)
  • Had run at Cheltenham before - six winning

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Had two or more starts in that season
  • Finished in the first three last time out
  • Had won two or more Grade 1s

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Had won at least once that season
  • Finished in the first three last time out
  • Were not trained in Ireland; two exceptions trained by Henry De Bromhead

The last 29 win and place positions

29/29 placed horses

  • Were officially rated 157+
  • Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
  • Had run in three or more chases
  • Had won on a left-handed track


KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Champion Chase)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Clarence House Chase (G1)AscotAltior (2019), Special Tiara (2017), Dodging Bullets (2015), Sire De Grugy (2014), Sprinter Sacre (2013), Finian's Rainbow (2012)Un De Sceaux (2016), Somersby (2015 & 2014)
Tied Cottage Chase (G2)PunchestownSizing Europe (2011), Big Zeb (2010)Sizing Europe (2013), Big Zeb (2013 & 2011)
Desert Orchid Chase (G2)KemptonSprinter Sacre (2016)Sir Valentino (2017), Special Tiara (2015 & 2014)
Game Spirit Chase (G2)NewburyAltior (2018)Dynamite Dollars (2020), Fox Norton (2017), Module (2014)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Nicky Henderson105505.610
Henry De Bromhead1121812.004
Paul Nicholls122170.502
Willie Mullins80--8.002

How Politologe Won 2020's Cheltenham Champion Chase

Denied by only the mighty Altior in 2019, Politologue made all the running to win the 2020 Cheltenham Champion Chase in a canter.

Jockey Harry Skelton did not see any of his mount's four rivals for the full 2m test, the nine-year-old needing little urging to pull nine and a half lengths clear of Dynamite Dollars as he crossed the line victorious.


3.30 CHELTENHAM – 2020 CHAMPION CHASE RESULT

  1. Politologue 6/1
  2. Dynamite Dollars 7/1
  3. Bun Doran 33/1

The win was a first at the Festival for Politologue, a sixth in the race for trainer Paul Nicholls, who also saddled Dynamite Dollars, a third for owner John Hales (One Man, Azertyuiop), and a first for Skelton.

Bun Doran raced with Dynamite Dollars until the third-last fence, but did not have the pace to stick with him any longer, and faded to finish a clear third, three and a quarter lengths behind the second.

Jockey Barry Geraghty could have landed a record sixth win in the race if Defi Du Seuil had justified 2-5 favouritism, but the seven-year-old never travelled and finished a distant fourth, only Sceau Royal behind him.


Cheltenham 2021 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Festival Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 - CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Champion Bumper

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