Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 4th, 2019

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TOP 5 CHELTENHAM FOXHUNTER CHASE TRENDS

• Irish or French bred
• Won a hunter chase
• Won one of their last three starts
• Finished in the first three last time out
• Last ran 20-53 days ago

Did Trends Win The Last Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase?

The key 15-Year Trend for the 2019 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase shortlist was 'won a hunter chase', as so few aged 11 or under had met that requirement for Festival victory.

Hazel Hill, Shantou Flyer, Road To Rome, and Ucello Conti scored best on trends, all ticked the top five above, as well as fulfilling all the key 10-Year trends. They went on to be first, second, fourth and fifth, the most crucial statistic being their fitness and freshness.

It's a fine balance between fit and tired, horses that run too close to this 3m2f chase pay the price, and those that have not run enough during the season also suffer, never more than in 2019 when Road To Rome set a blistering pace on holding ground.

Just nine of the 24 runners finished, 12 being pulled up, including many who had been fancied in the Cheltenham betting.

The horse with the biggest odds in the tip four, third Top Wood, a 33/1 chance, failed the win trends on age (12) and a recent run, as his last outing had been the previous April where he pulled up. But he did fit the place trends (see below).

KEY FOXHUNTER CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged no older than 11
• Had won a hunter chase
• Lined up at least 20 days after their last run
• Had won at least three times over fences, including in point-to-points

14 of the last 15 winners…

• Had run at least twice in the past 12 months
• Had run at least six times in their career

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were aged between seven and 11
• Last ran no more than 53 days ago, in a hunter chase
• Had won at least four times over fences, including in point-to-points
• Were Irish or French bred, a British-bred last winning in 2002; Last Option

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Finished in the first three last time out
• Won one of their last three starts
• Had won on a left-handed course

Eight of the last 10 winners...

• Were trained in Ireland or by Paul Nicholls

Seven of the last 10 winners...

• Had run at Cheltenham before
• Had won a point-to-point

The last six winners...

• Were aged 9 or older

Four of the last five winners...

• Were ridden by female jockeys
• Had previously been beaten in the Foxhunter Chase; so had the 2010 winner

The last 31 win and place positions

30/31 placed horses

• Were aged up to 13
• Had run up to six times in the last 12 months
• Had run up to four times that season

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Hazel Hill won 2019's Foxhunter Chase

Aged 11, Hazel Hill finally made his breakthrough, winning the 2019 Foxhunter Chase in emphatic style for trainer Philip Rowley and jockey Alex Edwards.

Having won 14 of his last 15 races, he was sent off the 7/2 favourite and given a determined ride by Edwards, one of few not to let blazing front-runner Road To Rome get too far away.

4.10 CHELTENHAM - 2019 Foxhunter Chase Result

1. Hazel Hill 7/2f
2. Shantou Flyer 7/1
3. Top Wood 33/1
4. Road To Rome 7/1

The winning pair kicked on in the straight and strode away to win by four lengths over Shantou Flyer and the 2018 second Top Wood, with Road To Rome hanging on for fourth.

Hazel Hill had only joined the Rowley-Edwards team two years earlier and had won virtually every start, running in his first hunter chase aged 10 in 2018. Owned by Diana Williams, the son of Milan had won three hunter chases by a combined 37 lengths.

Cheltenham 2020 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10- Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle