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Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Festival's Friday showpiece, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.
What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the key Gold Cup trends to follow, beyond the top five.
In short, no. The Gold Cup trends pointed to four horses, and only one made the frame; Bristol De Mai took third at odds of 18/1 - the biggest price amongst the selected quartet.
The winner, Al Boum Photo, did fit some of the trends, he was a Grade 1 winner, for example, but the seven-year-old was discounted because he last ran in a Listed race, had not won over 3m or further, and fell on his only outing at Cheltenham.
Bristol De Mai had achieved everything necessary to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup. His one negative against the trends was that fall last time out, and perhaps that confidence knock was enough to lose him Cheltenham race?
Almost every winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup won last time out, so the second horse on the trends shortlist, Native River, had clear concerns, having not won since his Cheltenham victory 12 months earlier. However, on all other fronts, he fit the profile and finished a gallant fourth, priced at 6/1 in the Cheltenham betting.
The best two Gold Cup trends fits through were the Willie Mullins-trained Bellshill (9/1) and Kemboy (8/1). Each won a Grade 1 last time out - two key trials at Leopardstown - achieving ratings well in excess of the minimum 164. They had been freshened up well. They had run well in Grade 1 novice chases at Cheltenham, and had won five chases each, including over 3m.
Luck was not on their side though; Kemboy unseated jockey David Mullins at the first fence and Bellshill was pulled up at the end of the first circuit after a series of jumping errors. It was just the second time in 22 starts that this 11-time winner had failed to complete a race.
The last 15 winners…
The last 10 winners…
Nine of the last 10 winners…
The last five winners...
30/30 placed horses
29/30 placed horses
26/30 places horses
25/30 placed horses
(Last Graded race contested prior to the Cheltenham Gold Cup)
| Key Race | Racecourse | Winners | Place Finishers |
|---|---|---|---|
| King George VI Chase (G1) | Kempton | Long Run (2011), Imperial Commander (2010), Kauto Star (2009) | Bristol De Mai (2019), Might Bite (2018), Long Run (2013), Kauto Star (2011) |
| Denman Chase (G2) | Newbury | Native River (2018), Coneygree (2015) | Native River (2017), The Giant Bolster (2012), Long Run (2012), Denman (2010) |
| Irish Gold Cup (G1) | Leopardstown | Sizing John (2017), Lord Windermere (2014) | Anibale Fly (2018), Minella Rocco (2017), Sir Des Champs (2013) |
| Savills Chase (G1) | Leopardstown | Synchronised (2012) | Don Poli (2016), Road To Riches (2015), Exotic Dancer (2009) |
| Ladbrokes Trophy (G3) | Newbury | Bobs Worth (2013) | Denman (2011) |
| Kinloch Brae Chase (G2) | Thurles | Don Cossack (2016) | - |
| Cotswold Chase (G2) | Cheltenham | - | Djakadam (2016), The Giant Bolster (2014) |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L | Places |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 10 | 2 | 20 | -1.75 | 3 |
| Jonjo O’Neill | 4 | 1 | 25 | 5.00 | 1 |
| Gordon Elliott | 4 | 1 | 25 | -0.75 | 0 |
| Colin Tizzard | 6 | 1 | 17 | 0.00 | 1 |
| Paul Nicholls | 17 | 1 | 6 | -16 | 3 |
| Willie Mullins | 20 | 1 | 5 | -7.00 | 5 |
Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins, a multiple Cheltenham Festival leading trainer, and the winning-most Festival trainer of all-time, had never won the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
But he felt that this year he had his best chance ever of landing Cheltenham's holy grail, fielding four top hopes; Kemboy, Bellshill, Al Boum Photo, and Invitation Only.
Shortest in the betting were Kemboy and Bellshill, who both exited the race on the first circuit. His 33/1 chance Invitation Only did too, leaving only 12/1 Al Boum Photo as the Gold Cup field turned down away from the packed stands for the second time.
Down the back straight, last year's first and second, Native River and Might Bite, fought out an almost identical duel to 12 months ago, head-to-head over ever flight, but at the furthest point the defending champion came under pressure and Al Boum Photo loomed ominously.
A stacked field rounded the home turn, Al Boum Photo just inching into the lead for jockey Paul Townend, who survived a penultimate flight blunder to galvanise the seven-year-old for a powerful surge up the hill.
He won by two and a half lengths over Anibale Fly, who had been third in 2018, with 2017 seventh Bristol De Mai finishing nearly four lengths further back in third, three lengths ahead of Native River and the King George VI Chase winner Clan Des Obeaux.
The 100/30 favourite Presenting Percy never travelled with the ease he had shown to win the RSA Chase a year earlier, and finished the race lame back in eighth.
13:30 Triumph Hurdle
14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle
14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
15:30 - CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase
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