Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 29th, 2019

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TOP 5 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS

• No older than nine-years-old
• Had won left-handed
• Had won a Grade 1
• No more than four starts since last win
• Finished in the first six last time out

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Cheltenham Gold Cup?

On the trends last year, the Gold Cup shortlist consisted of Definitly Red, Might Bite, Native River and Road To Respect - two taking first and second in the Cheltenham Festival's greatest chase.

Might Bite had won a ‘Key Race’ (see below) in the Grade 1 King George VI Chase at Kempton on December 26, and consequently headed the Cheltenham betting at 4/1, while Native River had earlier won the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury and Road To Respect won the Grade 1 Savill's Chase at Leopardstown.

Had Definitly Red been tested in Grade 1 company, he would have ticked all the 'Key Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends' (see below) too, but his recent wins in the Grade 2 Many Cloud Chase at Aintree and the Cotswolds Chase at Cheltenham over almost the Gold Cup distance got him on the shortlist.

KEY CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged no older than nine
• Had between one and five starts in that season
• Had run in a Grade 1
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Had previous experience of Cheltenham

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had won a Grade 1
• Were aged between six and nine
• Had no more than four runs since their last win
• Finished in the first six last time out

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Had four or more wins on a galloping track
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase
• Lined up between 31 and 90 days after their last start
• Were officially rated 166+

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30placed horses

• Last ran in a Graded race
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Had won on a galloping track
• Had no more than five starts since a win

29/30 placed horses

• Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
• Had between one and five starts in that season

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Cheltenham Gold Cup)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview

How Native River Won 2018's Cheltenham Gold Cup

The 15-runner 2018 Gold Cup turned into a match race, and it made for one of the most thrilling and compelling spectacles that anyone in a 70,000-strong crowd could remember.

Over 22 fences and 3m2.5f, Native River and Might Bite fought a private battle, stride for stride over every fence, as their trailing opponents tried and failed to close the gap.

3.30 CHELTENHAM – 2018 GOLD CUP RESULT

1. Native River 5/1
2. Might Bite 4/1
3. Anibale Fly 33/1

It was only after jumping the last upsides Might Bite that Native River found the strength to see off his older rival and win by four and a half lengths. The hero had finished third to Sizing John 12 months previously on far quicker ground, two days after the second had won the Grade 1 RSA Chase.

Anibale Fly fitted the 'Place Trends' well when finishing third at a huge 33/1, four lengths ahead of another off the shortlist Road To Respect, the final Gold Cup trends contender Definitly Red settling for 6th at 8/1.

Cheltenham 2019 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 - CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle