Coral Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Coral Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 CORAL CUP TRENDS

  • Won 2-5 hurdle races, the majority winning only 2-3
  • Carrying at least 2lb less than top weight
  • Aged between five and eight
  • Officially rated 140+
  • Not favourite

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Coral Cup?

Last year's Coral Cup turned out to be a ‘Trends Buster’ with only William Henry hitting the frame from a shortlist of four runners for the 2m5f Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdle.

The winner Bleu Berry, sent off at 20/1, just couldn't be short-listed on trends because he had only run once since the previous April, but apart from that, the Willie Mullins-trained seven-year-old did fit the 10-year and 15-year trends profiles.

Mount Mews and Fixe Le Kap, who both finished outside the top nine, and fourth and fifth, William Henry and The Organist, made up the Coral Cup trends short-list, William Henry the shortest odds in the Cheltenham betting at 8/1.


KEY CORAL CUP TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Had won 2-5 hurdle races, the majority winning only 2-3
  • Were not the favourite in the betting
  • Were aged five to nine
  • Had last run at least 18 days ago, all bar Monkherhostin having a 24-day+ break

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Were aged between five and eight
  • Last ran in a hurdle or handicap hurdle
  • Carried at least 2lb less than top weight
  • Had won 2-4 hurdle races
  • Featured fourth or lower in the weights

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 139+, eight being rated 140 or more
  • Carried at least 6lbs less than top weight
  • Had run at least five times over hurdles
  • Last ran between 24-80 days
  • Won one of their last three starts

Eight of the last 10 winners...

  • Had run at least three times that season, the exceptions ran once
  • Won 1-2 races in the same season

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first two in one of their last 10 starts (across all codes of racing)
  • Had not run for atleast 16 days

39/40 placed horses

  • Had run at least twice in the past 12 months

38/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first four in one of their last three starts

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Coral Cup)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Betfair Hurdle (G3)NewburySpirit River (2010)Blazer (2016), Activial (2015), Smashing (2014), Get Me Out Of Here (2012), Bothy (2011)
Welsh Champion Hurdle (G2)Ffos LasWhisper (2014), Medinas (2013)None

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Gordon Elliott1221718.003
Nicky Henderson3326-3.002
Willie Mullins2614-5.003
Alan King161618.002
Paul Nicholls1517-5.001

How Bleu Berry Bucked Trends In 2018 Coral Cup

Trainer Willie Mullins exectued the most perfect plan with his Grade 2-winning novice Bleu Berry in the 2018 Coral Cup.

The seven-year-old had won three low-key hurdle races convincingly the previous season, testing his metal over 2m4f in a Grade 1 at Punchestown to finish up. He finished fifth on ground perhaps too quick and did not run again for 10 months.


2.50 CHELTENHAM - 2018 CORAL CUP RESULT

  1. Bleu Berry 20/1
  2. Topofthegame 9/1
  3. Barra 16/1
  4. William Henry 8/1 fav

Bleu Berry reappeared in a valuable 2m handicap hurdle at Leopardstown and finished a well-beaten 17/28, lining up at Cheltenham five weeks later to run further than he ever had before - the ground having turned soft, to his liking.

With race fitness, off an almost identical handicap mark, Bleu Berry stayed on up the Cheltenham hill for jockey Mark Walsh to take up the lead with 100 yards to go, and hold off Topofthegame's renewed challenge by a neck.

The Gordon Elliot-trained Barra had every chance after the final hurdle, but appeared to find little up the hill, the 16/1 shot finishing third, a place ahead off the one-paced 8/1 joint favourite William Henry.


Cheltenham 2019 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 - Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper

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Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

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