Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival

TOP 5 FRED WINTER HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

  • Won no more thand two hurdle races
  • Carried at least 5lb less than top weight
  • No higher than fifth in the weights
  • Last ran in a hurdle race that was not a maiden
  • Irish or French-bred

Did Trends Win The Lasy Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle?

As tricky a Cheltenham Festival betting heat as you'll get, the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle trends threw up Coko Beach, Prabeni, and Praceps before 2019's renewal.

All three ticked all the boxes in the Top 5 trends list above, and filled all of the criteria outlined in the 10-year and 15-year trends too, but Coko Beach had the bonus of being trained by top race trainer Gordon Elliott.

He went on to be second, with Praeceps in 6th, and Prabeni disappointing in 14th.

Winner Band Of Outlaws carried 3lbs more than any winner in the past 11 years with 11st 8lb on his back, so was readily ruled out on trends, despite winning his last two starts impressively. Third Ciel De Neige and fourth King D'Argent had no recent run, which is a strong trend for winners and placed horses.


KEY FRED WINTER HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends (race first run in 2005)

The last 15 winners…

  • Finished in the first seven last time out
  • Last ran in a hurdle race, excluding maiden hurdles (the 32 runners that last ran in a maiden hurdle were all beaten)

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Were Irish or French-bred
  • Last ran in a hurdle or a novice hurdle
  • Had run in no more than six hurdle races
  • Had won no more than two hurdle races
  • Had never won a Graded race
  • Had never run at Cheltenham before

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 127+
  • Carried at least 5lb less than top weight
  • Finished first or second in one of their last two starts
  • Last ran no more than 60 days ago
  • Featured fifth or lower in the weights

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Were hurdle race winners
  • Featured ninth or lower in the weights

The last 40 win and place positions

39/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts
  • Ran less than 120 days ago
  • Were not topweight

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last major race contested prior to the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Adonis Hurdle (G2)KemptonFlying Tiger (2017), Une Artiste (2012)Kumbeshwar (2011)
Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1)LeopardstownFlaxen Flare (2013)Orgilgo Bay (2014)
Chatteris Fen Juvenile HurdleHuntingdonNoneStyle De Garde (2018) & Divin Bere (2017)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Paul Nicholls 19 3 17 19.50 6
Gordon Elliott 15 2 16 45.00 3
Nick Williams 7 1 14 27.00 1
Nicky Henderson 11 1 7 30.00 2

WATCH: Racehour Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Preview


How Band Of Outlaws Won 2019's Fred Winter

The Joseph O'Brien-trained Band Of Outlaws landed a substantial gamble to justify 7/2 favouritism in a competitive 21-runner renewal of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

A winner over 1m on the Flat, Band Of Outlaws had run three times over hurdles, winning his last two runs at Limerick and Naas. He was given a patient ride by JJ Slevin, overcoming trouble in-running to lead after the last hurdle and gallop away for a two-length win.


4.50 CHELTENHAM - 2018 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Result

  1. Band Of Outlaws 7/2f
  2. Coko Beach 14/1
  3. Ciel De Neige 17/2
  4. King D'Argent 25/1

The Gordon Elliott-trained Coko Beach, who led before the last, did not have the pace of the winner and finished second ahead of the maiden Ciel De Neige, who had not run since August.

The Dan Skelton-trained King D'Argent also had not run in 2019, but stayed on well to take fourth, beating Fanfan Du Seuil by a neck.



Cheltenham 2020 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper

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