Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

March 1st, 2019

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TOP 5 KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

• Run in at least 5 chases, preferably more
• Won no more than 2 handicap chases, if any
• Won a chase, but no more than 3 in total
• Run in at least two handicap chases
• Not French-bred

Get the latest Kim Muir Handicap Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Kim Muir Handicap Chase?

There were four horses who fit the Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends in 2019, including the winner and fourth.

At 6/1, Any Second Now was the shortest of the trends tips in the Cheltenham betting, and he duly obliged, winning by nearly four lengths to give owner JP McManus a third victory in 10 years - and jockey Derek O'Connor a first.

He ticked every box on trends, including having had his last big run in Leopardstown's Paddy Power Chase, which has proven by far the key trial to the Kim Muir Handicap Chase.

Crievehill, sent off at massive odds of 40/1 to be fourth, was also a great shout on trends; he fitted the Top 5, had all the attributes of the last 10 winners, and was running off well below his career-high handicap mark - the one question mark was recent form.

Sixth Captain Chaos, sent off at 20/1, and Speaker Connolly, who was making little headway when unseated four fences from home, completed the trends selections, the latter making the short-list despite his dangerously young age of six. Captain Chaos was slightly outside the optimum weight range at 11st 4lb.

Measureofmydreams, the 3/1 favourite who was eighth, did fit trends well, but was too old to be considered at 11 - remember, only three horses aged older than 10 have made the frame in the past 10 years (see Place Trends below)

KEY KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Had run in at least five chases, 9 running in 9 or more
• Had won no more than two handicap chases, nine winning none
• Had finished in the first three no more than four runs ago

13 of the last 15 winners…

• Had run in no more than nine handicap chases, the average being 4 runs

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were not French-bred; 38 ran, four placed.
• Had run in at least two handicap chases
• Had run 2-5 times that season, two winning
• Carried 11st 4lb or more
• Had won only 1-3 chases
• Had won on a galloping track
• Had won on a left-handed track

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged no older than 9
• Had run in no more than seven handicap chases
• Last ran no more than 76 days ago

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had run at Cheltenham over fences before, five placing, and six running at the Festival
• Last ran in a handicap chase or handicap hurdle
• Were aged 7 or 8
• Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both

The last six winners...

• Were running off a handicap mark at least 2lbs below their career-high, two were 10lbs lower. The five previous winners were running off a career-high mark
• Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

• Had won on a galloping track

39/40 placed horse

• Had won no more than four handicap chases

38/40 placed horses

• Had run at least three times in the last 12 months
• Had run at least twice that season
• Had won on a left-handed track

37/40 placed horses

• Were aged no older than 10

26/40 placed horses

• Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both

KEY RACE TRENDS (12 years)

(Last major race contested before Kim Muir Handicap Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Any Second Now won 2019’s Kim Muir Handicap Chase

Covered up by masterful amateur Derek O'Connor early, Any Second Now did not lead until the last fence in the 2019 Kim Muir Handicap Chase, but then romped to an almost four-length win.

Trained by Ted Walsh, the seven-year-old had been sent off at 6/1, after finishing third in a Grade 2 novice chase at Navan a month earlier.

In JP McManus's green and gold, Any Second Now had showed glimmers of his handicap potential with fifth in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December, and had Cheltenham Festival form - he was eighth in the 2018 Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase.

5.30 CHELTENHAM - 2019 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Result

1. Any Second Now 6/1
2. Kilfilum Cross 7/1
3. The Young Master 22/1
4. Crievehill 40/1

Blinkers had been applied at Leopardstown for the first time, and paid dividends on his return to Cheltenham. He beat the very inexperienced Kilfilum Cross, who was racing off a big career-high handicap mark, and two-time Cheltenham winner The Young Master.

A further five lengths back in fourth was the 40/1 shot Crievehill, who had led the field for 16 fences, bidding to give trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies a second Kim Muir Handicap Chase winner.

Cheltenham 2020 Thursday Schedule

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase trends

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase