Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of one of Cheltenham's most historic tests, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.
What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's National Hunt Chase. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the other National Hunt Chase trends, beyond the top five.
The 2019 National Hunt Chase trends drew up a shortlist of three horses, including one of the four finishers in the Festival's longest race.
Discorama took second having ticked all the 'Top 5' boxes, and fitted in to all the top '15-Year' and '10-Year' trends. His two negatives were that he fell last time out, and had not won over 3m, though he had tried the trip, which is all the trends ask for.
Stronger trends picks were the Cheltenham betting favourite Ballyward and Ok Corral, both more proven over long distances, but neither completed the race
The big concern for both was their lack of chasing experience, as no winner in the last 15 years has won with less than three runs over fences, but both horses had finished top four in the previous year's Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle and won Graded or Listed chases.
Ballyward also hit the trainer trends, being trained by Willie Mullins, who has a good record in the race. The winner Le Breuil just slipped out of the trends on stamina, as the 14/1 shot had run once beyond 2m5f, finishing a well-beaten third over 2m7.5f.
Though it was a big positive that he had run placed twice over fences at Cheltenham, the stamina question took him off the shortlist, though the booking of jockey Jamie Codd was eye-catching.
The last 15 winners…
The last 10 winners…
Nine of the last 10 winners…
Eight of the last 10 winners…
Seven of the last 10 winners…
The last 30 win and place positions
30/30 placed horses
29/30 placed horses
(Last Graded race contested prior to the National Hunt Chase)
Key Race | Racecourse | Dist. | Month | Winners | Place Finishers |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reynoldstown Novice Chase (G2) | Ascot | 3m | February | Minella Rocco (2016) | Ms Parfois (2018) |
Flogas Novice Chase (G1) | Leopardstown | 2m5f | February | Rathvinden (2018) | None |
Altcar Novice Chase (G2) | Haydock | 2m4f | January | Le Breuil (2019) | Jerrysback (2019) |
Ten Up Novice Chase (G2) | Navan | 3m | February | None | Haymount (2017), Measureofmydreams (2016), Tofino Bay (2013), Four Commanders (2012) |
January Novice Chase (G3) | Naas | 3m | January | None | Discorama (2019) |
Towton Novice Chase (G2) | Wetherby | 3m | February | None | Native River (2016) |
Trainer | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L | Places |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gordon Elliott | 8 | 3 | 38 | 24.00 | - |
Willie Mullins | 14 | 2 | 14 | -5.25 | 3 |
Alan King | 7 | 1 | 14 | 2.00 | 1 |
With the well-backed favourite Ballyward falling early on, it was left to Le Breuil and Discorama to fight out the 2019 National Hunt Chase.
Going head-to-head from the third-last fence, Discorama had the advantage over the last, but jockey Jamie Codd roused Le Breuil up the hill to win by half a length.
The victory was a first at the Festival for trainer Ben Pauling, Paul Nolan saddling the second, ridden by Barry O'Neill, who had 12 months earlier been second in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle.
Third was the Philip Hobbs-trained Jerrsyback under Declan Lavery with 125/1 shot Clondaw Cian the only other finisher in a searching renewal of the 4m novice chase.
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle
14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy
14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase
15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE
16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase
17:30 - National Hunt Novices' Chase
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