Next Conservative Party Leader Betting

SHARE

David Cameron has dominated the Conservative Party since his election as leader in 2005. Yet, rumblings of a potential leadership contest was picked up by the UK press as early as February 2014. Politicians are lining up to sit in the hot seat, and savvy gamblers should already be looking for good opportunities in the 'next Conservative Party leader' betting markets.

The Process

Unlike their US counterparts, UK Prime Ministers aren't limited in how long they can stay in office. The Constitution of the Conservative Party states that a leadership election is sparked only when the current leader resigns, or 15% of the party's elected MPs call for a motion of no confidence and the vote is passed by a majority.

Once a leadership election is opened, candidates must declare themselves. If more than one candidate stands, a vote is held among the entire party membership. A candidate must earn more than 50% of the vote to win.

Timing

As there are no set dates for a party leadership election, the main skill in betting on the next Conservative party leader is predicting when an election might take place.

A lot can change in a short period in British politics, and there's no point betting on the person of the moment if they don't have the staying power to last until a leadership election (a truth held in Democratic and Republican primaries in the US too); nor is it wise to bet on an up-and-comer if the leader's looking weak and there won't be time for their star to rise. That's why it's vital to have an idea of when the leadership election will be triggered.

With the Scottish Independence Referendum done and dusted, the next political flashpoint is the forthcoming general election. If the Conservatives fail to win, or suffer serious losses, it might be more than the coalition government that faces the chop.

Those who are confident of the Conservatives' electability, however, may want to look a little further ahead. David Cameron categorically told supporters that he would resign as party leader if he couldn't deliver a referendum on the EU by 2017. So those rising stars may still have a chance if the election map turns blue.

Choosing a Candidate

A strong public profile and PR skill often earmark a potential candidate. Personable, approachable and reasonable public persona make for a popular choice – comparable to Tony Blair before his meteoric rise to the Labour Party leadership.

Another key factor is party standing, indicated by previous positions of power. David Cameron, like Margaret Thatcher before him, was once shadow secretary for education, so the current secretary should always be considered. Elsewhere, the sitting chancellor would be a solid potential candidate as John Major, Michael Howard and Harold Macmillan were prior to their leadership. Exceptions happen as well; take Boris Johnson in 2015, a serious contender looking to set a precedent by moving quickly from his post as Mayor of London into party leadership.

Finally, and perhaps most troublesome, is the analysis of their desire and support. Political commentary in the press generally gives a good idea of who may be in the mix, while understanding behind-the-scenes allegiances will help predict who might garner enough support from their allies to mount a leadership campaign.

Betting Strategies

Making a prediction based on precedent and evidence is the safest way to bet, but it's far from the quickest. Sometimes a simpler strategy can yield results too.

The old tactic of backing the underdog is a tempting prospect – particularly with online betting sites that allow you to cash out early. It's worth remembering that David Davis was favoured as party leader long before David Cameron's campaign gained momentum, and underdogs like Jeremy Hunt, or politicians with proven staying power like Theresa May, might yet trump arch political plotters like George Osborne or media powerhouses like Boris Johnson, and deliver healthy profits.

Alternatively, undecided betters may want to examine other party leader betting markets for safer prospects; those who are confident of Cameron's hold over the party may prefer a punt on the 'next Prime Minister' market instead.

For the latest political betting odds and markets, visit Betfred Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

*T&C's apply to each offer, click Bet Now for more details

Betting Strategy Articles


Find the Best Bets for Dolphins and Saints’ Trip to London
Find the Best Bets for Dolphins and Saints’ Trip to London

America’s National Football League (NFL) continues the International Series as the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints battle it out under the NFL London Games banner on Sunday, October 1, at We ... Read More

Why President’s Cup Betting in 2017 Means Backing the US
Why President’s Cup Betting in 2017 Means Backing the US

There’ll be plenty of attention focused on the Liberty National Golf Resort in New Jersey this weekend as some of the best golfers from the US and outside of Europe roll in for the always competitive ... Read More

Expert Tips for Betting on NFL Games Played Outside the US
Expert Tips for Betting on NFL Games Played Outside the US

The National Football League, better known as the NFL, has ramped up their efforts the past few years to expand their support outside of their home in the US. Thanks to the NFL International Series, r ... Read More

Ultimate Guide to the Best Bets and Odds of NFL Season 2017
Ultimate Guide to the Best Bets and Odds of NFL Season 2017

The NFL has grown in global coverage over the past decade, giving punters more in the way of betting interest and ammunition when it comes to placing value bets. With the 2017/18 NFL season kicking of ... Read More

Guide to Betting the Men’s and Women’s US Tennis Open 2017
Guide to Betting the Men’s and Women’s US Tennis Open 2017

Tennis fans will be flocking to the Flushing Meadows neighbourhood of Queens, New York City, for the US Open. The two-week Grand Slam extravaganza will see more 128 players battle it out for the troph ... Read More

What Experts are Saying About Betting McGregor v Mayweather
What Experts are Saying About Betting McGregor v Mayweather

The mega-fight between Floyd "Money" Mayweather Jr and Conor "The Notorious" McGregor is going to be one of the biggest sports betting events of all time. With so much pre-fight hype on the clash, ana ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide