We saw a number of big scores in Week 6 as four different teams hit the 40-point mark while four others scored in the 30’s. What’s in store for Week 7? Here’s a look at our favorite total plays on the board.
The Cowboys allow just 17.2 points per game, which is second in the NFL. They’ve quietly morphed into one of the better defensive teams in the league. At the same time, Washington is only allowing 20.8 per game, which is a respectable eighth place in the league. Keep in mind that that includes the 43 they gave up to the New Orleans Saints in their blowout loss.
The other key to factor here is that the Cowboys offense is not as effective when they’re on the road. They have not scored more than 16 points in any of its three away games this season. Ezekiel Elliot is averaging 112 rushing yards per game at home compared to 83.3 on the road. And Dak Prescott has a 107.5 quarterback rating at home with five touchdowns and no interceptions.
However, on the road his rating is 66.7 and he has just two touchdowns and four interceptions. I like the under in this spot.
Pick: Under 41.5 at Karamba
Carolina and Philadelphia are faced with a total of 45 in this contest. It’s interesting to note that the under is 5-2 in the last seven road games that the Panthers played where the total was 42.5 to 45. It’s also 6-1 in the last seven home games where the Eagles faced the same total.
The Eagles offense did score 34 last week but they had 379 of offense in total. That’s low for the amount of points scored. They don’t have a reliable running game right now (just 189 rushing yards in the last two weeks). However, their own rushing defense is strong. They’re allowing 79.8 rushing yards per game (second in the NFL) and that will go head-to-head with the Panthers strength, which is fourth in rushing yards per game.
With the Eagles being at home, I like them to slow down the Panthers a bit. And with their own offense struggling for rhythm, I like the under.
Pick: Under 45 at Karamba
The Texans scored just 19 points against Dallas in overtime and scored just 20 against Buffalo this past week, with seven of those points coming on an interception returned for a touchdown. Houston’s offensive line is struggling to protect quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is getting pounded every week and has little time to throw the ball. The Texans have allowed 25 sacks, which is the second-most in the NFL. They’re also just 15th in the NFL in rushing at 109.2 yards per game, so they’re not exactly balanced.
If there was a team for the Jags to get right against, this seems to be it. They still have a quality defense, ninth in the league in scoring average allowed – even after allowing 70 points the last two weeks. They’ll get back on track here. If they’re in fact back, that will lead a lower-scoring game.
Pick: Under 42 at Karamba
If the Bears allowed the Miami Dolphins and Brock Osweiler to score 31 points, what will Tom Brady and New England do to Chicago? On the other hand, New England’s defense is not great either. They’re allowing an average of 24.7 points per game.
It’s worth noting that the Bears have played two home games and scored at least 24 points each time. As a matter of fact, their offense has produced at least 23 points in four of their five games this year.
As much credit as the Bears defense has gotten, they played a Packers team that missed Aaron Rodgers for a chunk of the game, they beat the Seahawks, who don’t travel well, and they also beat the Cardinals and Bucs. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Their pass defense ranks 16th in the NFL and they allow 7.8 yards per attempt, which is 22nd in the league. The Patriots offense is cooking right now, so it’s hard to see this being a defensive struggle.
Pick: Over 49.5 at Karamba
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