NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Parlay to Consider Backing

Dave Golokhov

November 19th, 2018

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Quick Tip:

• Bet Bears (-3.5) & Cowboys (-345) & Cowboys-Redskins under 40.5 & Saints (-715) at +680 with 888Sport.

Week 12 of the NFL betting season presents us with a trio of intriguing Thanksgivings Day games. We’ve crafted our weekly parlay around those contests, so here’s a look at four picks we like on Thanksgiving.

Pick #1: Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Detroit Lions

The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions 34-22 just a couple of weeks ago in Chicago and now the two will have a rematch on Thanksgiving Day. That game could have been even worse as the Bears actually missed a couple of field goals and an extra point. Chicago scored a touchdown on every single one of their first-half drives.

So what changes this time around? It’s possible that the Bears have a bit of a letdown after such a big win on Sunday Night Football. It’s also possible that home-field advantage plays a factor as the Bears have won by more than four just once on the road this season (at Buffalo).

However, Detroit is likely to be without rookie runner Kerryon Johnson. And even though Detroit is coming off a win, it wasn’t that impressive as they totaled 309 yards. Carolina also missed an extra point, a field goal and a two-point conversion, which probably would have been the difference.

Hopefully the price comes down to a field goal later in the week but even as of now, I like the Bears. Take Chicago -3.5 with 888Sport.

Pick #2 & 3: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-333 & O/U 40.5)

The Redskins are a team that’s falling apart at the seams. Much of it has to do with injuries but that’s the way the cookie crumbles in the NFL. Already done multiple starting receivers, the Redskins have also lost three starting offensive linemen to long-term injuries and now have lost starting quarterback Alex Smith.

The drop-off from Smith to Colt McCoy might not be huge but it adds to the team’s challenges. Momentum has shifted for this side. They’ve lost two of three and were outgained 501-286 in their lone win.

As for the Cowboys, this is a team that has won two straight and is playing very well. They are running the offense through Zeke Elliott, as evidenced by the fact that nearly half of the plays ran through him last Sunday. He posted his second straight 100-yard rushing game.

Dallas should win this game but I still like Washington to keep this close. They have lost by more than a touchdown three times but that was to three explosive offenses (New Orleans, Indianapolis and Atlanta).

The Redskins still have the sixth-ranked rush defense in terms of yards per game. That should match up well to slow Dallas’ strengths. Bet the Cowboys win here, but the game stays within the spread.

Sticking with this game, I like the under in this matchup. The Cowboys defense continues to play well while the offense has renewed its focus on Ezekiel Elliott. As a result, that’s turned into a more effective unit. They’ve won the time of possession battles by at least 3:30 in each of their last two games.

The Cowboys have given up just 18.8 points per game over their last six and it’s hard to envision such a banged up Redskins offense blowing past that number. The 21 points the Redskins scored last week was their highest in five games. They’re averaging 19.0 points per game over their last six.

Pick #4: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-715)

The evening game will pit the Falcons against the Saints in a rematch of a Week 3 classic when the Saints edged the Falcons 43-37 in Atlanta. A lot has changed since then as the Falcons were 1-1 at the time but are 3-5 since. The Saints have won nine straight.

It’s hard to bet the Falcons here as their offense has crumbled over the last couple of weeks. They have scored a total of just 35 points in back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Dallas. A big issue has been their ground game. They rank 29th in the NFL and that’s made their offense very predictable.

On defense, the Falcons have the league’s 29th rank pass defense and 21st ranked run defense. It could get ugly against the explosive Saints offense. The issue here is I don’t want to lay two touchdowns. It’s still a divisional game and the Saints are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 as a favorite of 10 or more. Bet the Saints -715 with 888Sport.

Play This Parlay

Bet Bears (-3.5) & Cowboys (-345) & Cowboys-Redskins under 40.5 & Saints (-715) at +680 with 888Sport.