The NFL regular season has finished three months of play and heads into the final month and playoffs. There’s still plenty of action for fans of NFL betting. We’ll start this week’s ATS picks with two teams who are heading in opposite directions.
The line: Colts -4 with Karamba.
The smart money last week suggested that the Jaguars were not likely to win on the road in Buffalo, even though the Bills have not been very good this season. The Bills, sure enough, won that game straight up, validating the idea that the Jaguars have packed it in for the season after their crushing 20-16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Jags led the Steelers 16-0 in the third quarter of that game and then collapsed late.
For a team which has had a perfectly nightmarish season on so many levels – with team members getting in trouble on a trip to London and with quarterback Blake Bortles now officially being benched for this upcoming game against the Colts – it seems reasonable to think that Jacksonville won’t win many more games this year.
It won’t help matters that running back Leonard Fournette is suspended this week.
While the Jaguars have lost seven games in a row, the Colts have won five in a row. Quarterback Andrew Luck is as hot right now as Bortles is cold. Luck and coach Frank Reich are now on the same page, which wasn’t the case in September.
The Colts are on the road, but they are playing a lot better than the Jaguars right now and beat Jacksonville a few weeks ago. Indianapolis is the smart play. Bet the Colts -4 with Karamba.
The line: Dolphins -4.5 with 888Sport.
The Bills have won back-to-back games and have a little bit of momentum. Now they head to Miami to face a team they play close games with. They’re 2-2 in their last four with and the two losses were by a field goal. Buffalo has covered seven of the last 10 meetings.
Miami is stumbling. They were outgained by nearly 150 yards last week but kept it close due to three Indianapolis turnovers. The team has lost four of five and their defense has been getting rocked each week unless they force turnovers.
Look for the Bills to play it cautious this week, avoid mistakes and keep this game within the spread. Take Buffalo and the points with 888Sport.
The line: Chiefs -14 with Betfair.
The Chiefs are coming off a bye week, which will make them an attractive pick here. However, their defense leaves a lot of room to be desired, something the whole country saw in the epic Monday night game against the Los Angeles Rams.
What’s more is that the Raiders – despite their struggles – are continuing to play hard for Jon Gruden. They are not mailing it in every week. They are doing just the opposite, pushing the Baltimore Ravens one week after winning in Arizona against the Cardinals.
The Chiefs should beat the Raiders but it might not be the 20-point romp most are expecting. Take Oakland and the points with Betfair.
The line: Patriots -5 with 888Sport.
The Vikings beat the Packers on Sunday night, but it was clear that Green Bay is a broken team with deficient players and a struggling Aaron Rodgers. The Patriots and Tom Brady aren’t in the same position. They are still on course to win a division championship and just saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Denver Broncos.
New England is in prime position to get yet another first-round bye in the playoffs, and playing at home, the Pats have not lost a game this season.
Their only losses have been on the road – Tennessee, Detroit and Jacksonville – with two of those losses coming in September, when the Patriots were a very different team and had not signed Josh Gordon to help Brady in the passing game.
Minnesota has not been able to score in bunches the way it hoped to with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. The Vikings offense has disappointed this year. And what was somewhat lost in the win last week is the Vikings continue to have kicking issues as Dan Bailey only hit one of three field goals.
New England is usually trustworthy at home. They are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 against teams with a winning record while Minnesota is 0-2 ATS this year and 7-10 ATS in their last 17. New England is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.
Take the Patriots and lay the points at 888Sport.
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