Pertemps Final Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Pertemps Final Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 PERTEMPS FINAL TRENDS

  • Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
  • Won no more than 5 hurdle races
  • Run in 1-5 handicap hurdles
  • Last ran no more than 76 days ago
  • Last ran in a novice hurdle or handicap hurdle

Did Trends Win The Last Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle?

On the Pertemps Final trends in 2019, a shortlist of four found three of the first four, in a notoriously tricky Cheltenham Festival betting heat.

Fitting particularly well into the 10-year-trends was third Not Many Left, who had run up to Grade 3 level as a novice and had won last time out on handicap debut over 3m1f.

Half of the last 10 winners of the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle had never won a handicap hurdle before, the remainder winning no more than two. This is a key trend to follow, and one that applied to winner Sire Du Berlais, and fourth Cuneo.

Sire Du Berlais was more highly-rated than most winners, and booked for plenty of weight at 11st 9lb, but had to be respected coming from the yard of top race trainer Gordon Elliott.

The final horse on the trends shortlist was unplaced First Assignment, who although he had won three handicap hurdles, was still rated just 142, and boasted wins over 3m and at Cheltenham. He had also been third last time out, but was beaten by the soft ground at the Festival and finished ninth.


KEY PERTEMPS FINAL TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Won no more than five hurdle races
  • Won no more than 3 handicap hurdles
  • Had run up to seven times that season
  • Had run in at least one handicap hurdle
  • Last ran in a novice hurdle or handicap hurdle

12 of the last 15 winners…

  • Had not run in more than five handicap hurdles before

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last six starts
  • Last ran no more than 76 days ago
  • Were officially rated 133 or higher
  • Had run at least twice that season, four winning
  • Had run in a race over at least 3m, five winning

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 139 or higher
  • Had won a galloping track
  • Last ran in a handicap hurdle

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • GB or Irish bred
  • Had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles, including the last eight
  • Had never run in the Pertemps Final before, dual winner Buena Vista the exception
  • Were aged between 5-8, including the last eight - four of the last five were aged no older than 6

Seven of the last 10 winners…

  • Had run in a maximum of nine hurdle races, including the last six
  • Carried at least 10st 10lb to victory, including the last seven

The last 40 win and place positions

39/40 placed horses

  • Had run no more than seven times that season

38/40 placed horses

  • Had won no more than five handicap hurdles
  • Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
David Pipe 18 2 11 20.00 2
Patrick Kelly 2 2 100 25.00
Gordon Elliott 8 2 25 4.00 3

How Sire Du Berlais won 2019’s Pertemps Final

In an episode of Deja Vu, Sire Du Berlais gave trainer Gordon Elliott back-to-back Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final victories, justifying 4/1 favouritism by the narrowest of necks.

The seven-year-old, donning cheekpieces for the first time, had finished fourth in the previous year's Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, and was set to race off an almost identical handicap rating.


2.10 CHELTNENHAM - 2019 Pertemps Final Result

  1. Sire Du Berlais 4/1f
  2. Tobefair 40/1
  3. Not Many Left 16/1
  4. Cuneo 12/1

JP McManus French recruit had still not won a hurdle race outside France, but this is a race that has regularly favoured big weights, and jockey Barry Geraghty was not for stopping.

Given a patient ride, Sire Du Berlais got into the mix at the last hurdle and rallied up the hill to lead in the final strides, Tobefair chasing him all the way, but failing by a neck.

Not Many Left and Cuneo, who had lead at the last hurdle, held on for third and fourth, the winner's stablemate A Toi Phil a distant fifth.


Cheltenham 2020 Thursday Schedule

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase trends

14:10 - Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends

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