Three Cheltenham Festival heroes clash in Saturday's Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, all seeking to stake their claim on the Champion Hurdle crown, including present wearer: Buveur D'Air.
JP McManus's star is setting out on a path to win the Champion Hurdle for a third successive year, and heads the ante-post markets to do so. He is the champion until proven otherwise, but the Fighting Fifth Hurdle betting suggests he could have competition this weekend in the shape of two Cheltenham Festival novice hurdle winners.
It's not a question of who will win the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, but rather who won't. It takes some imagination and faith in equine improvement to consider a winner other than Buveur D'Air (11/10f Paddy Power), however, there are two horses who may and that's worth exploring.
In summary, Samcro won four races last season, beating 47 different horses. Of them, 27 had won, 16 going on to win, or win again, including in two Grade 1s and a Grade 2.
Summerville Boy beat 31 different horses in three lifetime wins. Of them, 20 were winners, 9 going on to win, or win again, including a Grade 1 and Grade 2. The horses Samcro has beaten have won 87 races across all codes, or an average of 1.85. Those in Summerville Boy's wake have won 65 races - an average of 2.1.
That analysis probably brings you no closer to betting against Buveur D'Air in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle odds. He is rated upwards of 9lbs superior to the young pretenders, won the Grade 1 last year, and is on a winning streak of 10.
There are likely to be only five runners, so place terms for each-way bets on the Fighting Fifth Hurdle will be two places at 1/4 the odds. The reality is that Buveur D'Air will never be bigger than the 11/10f offered by Paddy Power now, and if you can bet at those odds, do.
But if you are still a believer in Samcro being the second-coming, he is NOT going to be odds-on for the first time in his entire racing career.
>> Back Samcro Each-Way at 2/1 with Coral
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