Spurs Offering Great NBA Betting Value Despite Hot Streak
- Bet Spurs to win NBA Southwest Division at +600 with Karamba.
- Bet Gregg Popovich for NBA Coach of the Year at +4000 with 888Sport.
You didn’t really think betting against Gregg Popovich was a good idea, did you? This was supposed to be the year it all came crumbling down.
The streak of 21 consecutive playoff appearances was going to end because the San Antonio Spurs no longer had Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker, and they dealt All-Pro forward Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors in the offseason.
And for a while, those predictions seemed accurate. On Dec. 5 the Spurs were 11-14, they had the league’s second-worst defense (in front of only the 5-19 Cavaliers) and the worst net rating in the West. It all seemed to be coming apart. And then …
NBA betting fans who ignore the start cashed in. Big time.
Betting the Spurs Against the Spread
When the Spurs came home on Dec. 7, they absolutely caught fire. Here’s what they’ve done: The Spurs have won 12 of their last 15 games and have gone 13-2 against the spread in that span. Their most dominant stretch came in late December when they became the first team in NBA history to score 120 or more and allow fewer than 100 in three straight games.
During this 17-game stretch they’ve defeated and covered against the Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets, Clippers, Celtics and Raptors.
They have the NBA’s best net rating by 6.5 points; the difference between them and No. 2 Indiana is the same between Indiana and No. 10 Brooklyn. Now the schedule softens up as they’ll place six of their next 10 against teams with losing records.
Assuming they’re favorites in those games and the two home games against winning teams, we can expect more covers; the Spurs are 12-8 against the spread as favorites this year, the fifth best mark in the NBA.
In this 17-game stretch they’re 7-1 against the spread as favorites. This thing’s only going to keep rolling, and we like them Monday night as 3-point favorites against the Pistons with Betfair.
Spurs a Value Bet to Win NBA Southwest
James Harden looks like he’s going to repeat as MVP , given what he’s done the last two weeks. The Rockets started off just as slow as the Spurs did and have righted the ship to the tune of an 11-2 record since Dec. 11. In the span that the Spurs are first in net rating, Houston is sixth in the NBA and second in the West.
These two teams are pulling away from the pack in the Southwest Division, as Memphis has lost five straight, the Mavericks have lost 10 of 13 games and the Pelicans are a mess. As of Monday they’re both tied for the division lead, with Houston mere percentage points (22-16, .579) ahead of San Antonio (23-17, .575). And yet, the Rockets are overwhelming favorites.
It’s certainly the Harden effect, but the Rockets have -278 odds with top basketball bookmakers. San Antonio, the best team in the West over the last month, is sitting at +600 to win it with Karamba.
Houston is on the right path and eventually will get Chris Paul back. But DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge aren’t going anywhere. DeRozan is averaging 21.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists since December, and Aldridge is averaging 22.5 points on an absurd 58.4 percent shooting since Dec. 7.
Popovich has his guys in the right spots, making them great value to keep pace with Houston in the second half.
Consider Popovich in NBA Coach of the Year Betting
Speaking of Popovich, at what point will he start getting Coach of the Year consideration? His three Hall of Famers have left in the last two seasons, his All-Pro forward forced his way out of San Antonio and his fourth leading scorer is Bryn Forbes.
And yet they’re sitting in sixth place in the West, one-half game back of the fourth-seeded Clippers and in striking distance of the Golden State Warriors, all in a season where they were supposed to crumble.
The one constant over the last two decades has been Popovich, the league’s best coach. He hasn’t won Coach of the Year since 2014, so perhaps voters will get him back in the race.
Given that he’s won before and the Spurs are the hottest team in the league as the second half begins, he’s incredible value at +4000 on 888Sport.
If San Antonio can finish somewhere in the top 4, he’ll have to get serious consideration.
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