US Republican Primary Betting

Contributor

February 17th, 2015

Before the US presidential elections begin, there's the small matter of who will represent each of the country's two main political parties, the Democratic Party and the Grand Old Party (GOP) - better known as the Republican Party. While at times the Republican primary can seem like a landslide (in 2004, incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed), the race - especially in recent decades - can feature a wealth of candidates with a chance, making US Republican primary betting an enticing prospect.

How Primaries Work

The basic premise behind the selection of the Republican party candidate is that party delegates (elected officials) choose a candidate they pledge their support to. Registered party members then vote at primaries (or hold debates at caucuses) to decide which delegates to send to the national convention. Delegates that win the primary (or caucus) are sent to the convention, where they vote for the presidential candidate.

However, there are certain aspects of the primary process that may change, and should be factored into the betting process.

Important Details

Things to look out for are:

Winner-Takes-All | Unlike the Democrats, some Republican primaries are winner-takes-all, meaning that candidates receiving over 50% of the vote will take all delegates. In practise, this can mean big shifts.
Super Delegates | Not all delegates pledge to support a candidate; those that don't can vote any way come national convention time.
Closed/Open Primaries | A closed primary means only party members can vote, but open primaries allow anyone to have an opinion. In states where a particular issue or scandal takes hold, open primaries can be very interesting.

Key Dates

When you're tracking the primaries, there are some dates that always deliver fireworks. Iowa and New Hampshire are the two states that, as the first of the primaries, always deliver a statement of intent from the candidates, and soak up 50% of the media attention devoted to the entire process.

South Carolina is considered a "firewall" primary for Republican candidates: this primary tends to be the one that kills the momentum of insurgent candidates that gained traction in Iowa and New Hampshire. It did it to Bob Dole in 1988, to John McCain in 2000, and there'll be more to come. Since the 1980s, Super Tuesday, towards the end of the process, has traditionally hosted most of the state primaries, and marks a pivotal moment for most candidates.

Betting Strategies

Those who are keen to analyse the primary process as it unfolds still have plenty of options when it comes to how to play a betting strategy.

Back High, Lay Low | The quick shifts that characterise the primaries mean there's a myriad of risks and rewards. A tried-and-tested gambler's approach to such situations is to back candidates while the odds and long, and bet against (lay) candidates who are odds on.
Hedging | If you back candidates early, you may want to hedge your bets by backing up-and-comers if your candidate faces adversity. Be sure to do the maths, though: a good hedge should at least minimise losses.
Cash Out | Choosing a bookie who lets you cash out means you can lock in your earnings or minimise losses by claiming your cash back early.

Alternative Markets

If US Republican primary betting isn't enough, there’s a lot to consider in the Democratic primary betting markets. Alternatively, you can bet on the 'winning party of next US Presidential election' with Winner Sports and even pick the gender of the next US president.

Remember, political betting odds are constantly changing, so visit Betfred Sports today for the latest updates!