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I’ve spent more than enough time extolling the virtues of Ashleigh Barty on this site so I will try to keep this Wimbledon betting preview. She followed up her surprise French Open success with victory at the Birmingham Classic without dropping a set to become world number one. Barty then skipped Eastbourne citing the arm injury which saw her take a week off before Roland Garros. This appears to be just a precautionary measure as it certainly didn’t affect her in Paris.
As I’ve said before, grass is her best surface and she is a worthy favourite to secure back-to-back Slam titles. If you have not backed her already (why not?), then please avail yourselves of the 6/1 offered by Black Type and prepare for the biggest tennis betting event of the year.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ashleigh Barty | 11/2 |
| Karolina Pliskova | 6/1 |
| Serena Williams | 8/1 |
| Angelique Kerber | 10/1 |
| Petra Kvitova | 14/1 |
| Naomi Osaka | 18/1 |
| Simona Halep | 20/1 |
| Madison Keys | 25/1 |
| Kiki Bertens | 25/1 |
| Johanna Konta | 25/1 |
The Australian does admittedly have quite a tough quarter with defending champion Angelique Kerber and former winners Serena Williams and Garbine Muguruza in there. But there are big question marks over the last two, fitness and form respectively, while the nature of Kerber’s defeat to Karolina Pliskova in the Eastbourne final is a cause for concern.
I am surprised to see Pliskova challenging Barty for favouritism. The Czech has often flattered to deceive in Slams and her third-round exit to Petra Martic at Roland Garros was a disappointment. Before her win at Eastbourne, she suffered a shock defeat to her sister Kristyna at Birmingham. She has reached just one Slam final, the 2016 US Open where she went down to Kerber, and the furthest she has got at Wimbledon is the fourth round last year.
There’s no doubt Pliskova is in what looks a pretty winnable third quarter but we’ve been here a few times before and I would not have confidence in her getting out of it, certainly not enough to vaguely consider backing her at 13/8 with William Hill. It is 11/1 bar and, while you could throw several darts at this and get nowhere, I’m going to limit myself to two.
The first is Jelena Ostapenko who I’m hoping is fit after she retired with a hip problem at Eastbourne. Before that, the mercurial Latvian had shown some decent form on grass after a long period in the doldrums. It’s easy to forget that she reached the semis at Wimbledon last year and, of course, she is a Grand Slam winner. She is 11/1 with Paddy Power and, if she can get past the tricky Hsieh Su-Wei in round one, could go far.
The other is Maria Sakkari who looks overpriced at 22/1 with Bet365. The Greek fell in two close sets to Jo Konta at Eastbourne but there is a chance she will not face anyone of that calibre - certainly not on grass - in this quarter if Ostapenko and Pliskova go out early.
Given the wide-open nature of the fourth quarter, I’d be tempted by each-way outright bets on these two as well. Ostapenko is a 66/1 shot with Unibet while Sakkari is 200/1with the same firm .
Petra Kvitova will play at Wimbledon but it sounds like she is hoping for the best with her arm. It’s such a shame on a human level with the Czech playing her best tennis since her career was threatened by a knife attack at her home in December 2016. Twice a champion at SW19, the 29-year-old was my main pick for this event months ago but it’s impossible to back her now.
That leaves the second quarter wide open. The two obvious candidates are Kiki Bertens and Jo Konta. Bertens reached the final at ‘s-Hertogenbosch but, after bagelling Alison Riske in the opening set, somehow managed to lose. She was then well beaten by Angelique Kerber at Eastbourne. That would normally put me off but she does not look like she will face a serious test until the quarter-finals and that makes me a backer at 4/1 with Betway.
Konta has a slightly tougher route through, if we discount Kvitova, with Sloane Stephens a likely third-round opponent. I would expect her to win that clash, and I think she can make it through to the quarters. Given the lack of obstacles in her path to the quarters, I’ll take the 5/1 with Ladbrokes that she makes it through to the semis.
Ostapenko each-way outright - 66/1 with Unibet
Sakkari each-way outright - 200/1 with Unibet
Sofia Kenin to win fourth quarter - 12/1 with Ladbrokes
Kenin each-way outright - 66/1 with Paddy Power
Venus Williams to win fourth quarter - 25/1 with Paddy Power
Maria Sakkari to win third quarter - 22/1 with Bet365
With plenty of question marks over form and their affinity for grass, Naomi Osaka and Simona Halep are ones to avoid in the fourth quarter. I’ve long thought Madison Keys was a contender on grass but her lack of play since Roland Garros is a worry.
My pick to win the bottom quarter is Sofia Kenin who impressed me greatly in winning on grass at the Mallorca Open. She came through a high-class semi-final with Anastasija Sevastova before coming from a set down to beat Belinda Bencic.
She has tasted the limelight with victory over Serena Williams at Roland Garros and is clearly a young player going places. I’m very keen on the 12/1 with Ladbrokes about her to win her quarter and 66/1 with Paddy Power outright looks fair for a small each-way bet given the weakness of the half.
Venus Williams may be in the twilight of her career but she can still more than hold her own at Wimbledon where she has won no fewer than five titles. The 39-year-old might just have a bit too much know-how for some of her opponents and the 25/1 with Paddy Power to win the fourth quarter makes plenty of appeal.
Tennis Betting Strategy: Picking a Men's Tournament Winner
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Tennis Betting Strategy: Avoid Wimbledon Favourites Early On
Wimbledon is the oldest tournament in the world and was first held in 1877 at the All England Lawn Tennis Club with the inaugural ladies’ singles event played in 1884. Tradition dictates that all players must wear all-white or predominantly white clothing.
Rain has long been a bugbear for spectators and organisers, but a retractable roof on Centre Court was introduced for the 2009 tournament with play now able to continue until 11 pm.
Martina Navratilova serve-volleyed her way to a record nine singles titles, the last coming in 1990. In the Open era, Serena Williams and Steffi Graf are next on seven triumphs apiece.
Wimbledon is a different test from the days of Navratilova and Graf. Very short rallies in the men’s game led to changes being made at the turn of the century to slow down play. A bigger, heavier ball was introduced with a new grass seed being planted to increase bounce.
The Williams sisters have a total of 12 Wimbledon singles titles with Venus on five. Serena is the dominant player of the century and her powerful serve makes her very hard to beat at SW19. She is the 9/2 favourite with Ladbrokes and Coral Sports, with Venus available at 50/1 with Betfair.
Petra Kvitova, winner in 2011 and 2014, is 6/1 generally while reigning champion Angelique Kerber is 11/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral Sports. 2017 champion Garbine Muguruza is 16/1 with Unibet and 888Sport while Maria Sharapova, who claimed her sole Wimbledon crown in 2004, is 66/1 with Unibet and 888Sport having missed the French Open with a shoulder injury.
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