Jacare vs Hermansson Odds & UFC Fight Night 150 Betting Tips
- Bet Jacare over Hermansson at 10/19 with 888Sport
- Bet Smolyakov over Hardy at 47/20 with Karamba.
On Saturday evening, the UFC returns to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, with a deceptively good Fight Night card, headlined by the Ronaldo Jacare Souza looking to stake his claim to a title shot.
Jacare was originally supposed to rematch Yoel Romero in a title eliminator on the card, but Romero was forced out of the bout due to pneumonia, so surging middleweight Jack Hermansson has stepped in on short notice and is looking to announce himself as a serious contender.
Jacare says he’s been promised a title shot with a win, so let’s see if he’ll get it. Here’s how fans of UFC betting should attack the card.
Jacare Souza vs Jack Hermansson Betting Tips
Souza has a legitimate claim to being the greatest grappler in MMA history. Widely considered to be one of the best BJJ players of the era, Jacare transitioned to MMA in the mid-2000s and has gone on to have nearly as much success in fighting as he did grappling.
Unlike other BJJ practitioners who transfer over though, Jacare was able to find sustained success through elite athleticism and excellent wrestling and these attributes are still the foundation of his game. He’s no novice on the feet though.
As he’s aged Souza throws much less than he previously did but he still has serious knockout power and enough craft to land game-changing blows against most opponents.
Stylistically, Hermansson is pretty different from Souza. “The Joker” has not brought the same kind of knockout power to bear as Jacare and instead works opponents over with volume and a multi-level attack on the feet.
He prefers to stay at range and kick before charging in with long combinations. He’s also a very active grappler, though pursuing such ends against Souza would be a huge mistake.
Jacare-Hermansson Best Bet
Jacare is currently 10/19 per 888Sport with the comeback on Hermansson at 31/20. Frankly, those odds surprise me. Outside of a loss to the current middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, Souza is arguably unbeaten since 2011, having only dropped a pair of split decisions that he probably should have won.
On top of that, Jacare has faced substantially better competition than Hermansson and has historically struggled against the best athletes he has faced.
The wild card at play here is that Jacare is 39 and definitely appears to be past his best years, but considering his weapons and advantages, he should still have more than enough in the tank to get through Hermansson. I expected this line to be 5/13 for Jacare, so 10/19 is a good value bet with 888Sport.
Greg Hardy vs Dmitry Smolyakov Betting Tips
There’s not too much to say about Greg Hardy the fighter. The former NFL All-Pro defensive end has made headlines due to his controversial past and finds himself in the co-main event on Saturday due to his fame, not his fighting accomplishments.
A professional for less than a year, Hardy only has four pro fights under his belt, the first three of which ended in a combined 2 minutes and 7 seconds.
He made his UFC debut in January, losing via DQ to Allen Crowder, who was seemingly on his way to upsetting Hardy before Hardy threw an illegal knee that ended the bout.
That fight was almost a perfect microcosm of what we can expect from Hardy: serious power and athleticism, a suspect gas tank, and novice tendencies, all features which could be on display Saturday as well as he faces Dmitry Smolyakov, a Russian fighter who earned Master of Sport honors in wrestling in his home country.
After amassing an 8-0 record to start his career, Smolyakov lost his first two UFC fights and is now looking to avoid getting cut completely. As you may expect with his Master of Sport designation, Smolyakov prefers to get takedowns and work on top, and he has a number of submissions in his arsenal.
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Hardy-Smolyakov Best Bet
Hardy is currently 20/63 per 888Sport with the comeback on Smolyakov at 47/20. Those odds are wild. Hardy will likely be a very good MMA fighter one day - Matt Mitrione and Brendan Schaub were significantly worse football players turned pros and they were top-10 guys - but the learning curve can be pretty steep.
Even some of the best fighters ever were terrible early in their careers and that’s where we are with Hardy. His sheer athleticism allows him to run through easy competition but he lacks the seasoning to do something else when Plan A fails.
Amolyakov is not the most durable so Plan A may well succeed for Hardy, but he should be nowhere near this high, especially given Smolyakov’s wrestling background and Hardy’s suspect cardio; 47/20 is an excellent value bet on Smolyakov with Karamba.
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