Oscars Betting Tips, Advice and Latest Odds

Ziv Chen

November 2nd, 2021

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The magnificence, glamour and occasional unpredictability of the annual Academy Awards has made the event popular on UK betting platforms, with the best betting sites offering plenty of markets for each prestigious award. If you’re interested in placing a wager on the Academy Awards this year and potentially winning big on Oscars night, discover our top Oscars betting tips, advice, and all the latest odds in this handy Gambling.com guide!

Betting Tips for This Year’s Oscars

During the final months of the year prior, film studios release and promote films they believe to be “Oscar-worthy” - those with a chance of taking home one of the iconic golden trophies. Also known as Oscar Season, it is the perfect time to predict which of the latest films will be nominated for the awards. This is a fun period for anyone that loves the event but for those placing money on the winners it's especially important, as it helps you form an Oscars betting system well ahead of time.

Oscars Best Actor and Actress Nominees Favourites

Best Actor and Best Actress wagers are some of the best Oscars bets you can place. These are two of the most highly anticipated awards of the evening and markets for each can be found at the best novelty and entertainment betting sites. These awards are often remarkably competitive with many big names nominated, so it’s essential to use a solid Oscars betting system to increase your chances of taking home a payout.

Best Actor Award

Let’s take a look at the favourites likely to be nominated for Best Actor 2022. The leading candidate thus far is Will Smith for his role in King Richard by Warner Bros Studios. As one of Hollywood’s biggest names, Smith will be looking to finally get his hands on an Academy Award, having been nominated twice. It seems 2022 could finally be his year.

One betting trend when looking for value in the Best Actor race is to look for performers who portray “real” people. For instance, six of the Best Actor winners of the past 10 years have played non-fictional characters. Recently, we saw Remi Malek win the award in 2018 for his portrayal of Freddie Mercury, and the year prior, Gary Oldman won with his depiction of Winston Churchill.

Thus, Smith’s role in playing Richard Williams in this biographical drama film boosts his chances of winning. Other Best Actor nominee favourites include Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth and Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog.

Odds to Win Best Actor at the Oscars*

*Odds correct as of 01/11/2021

Best Actress Award

For Best Actress, those playing real-life individuals have fared better recently than those playing fictional characters, so that must factor into your Oscars betting system. Within the past 10 years, three winners have portrayed real-world people: Renée Zellweger, Olivia Coleman, and Meryl Streep, who portrayed Judy Harland, Queen Anne and Margaret Thatcher, respectively.

Kristen Stewart is a clear favourite to win the Best Actress Award 2022 for her performance as Princess Diana in Spencer. Other strong contenders include Jessica Chastain for her lead in The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Lady Gaga in House of Gucci, both based on true stories.

Odds to Win Best Actress at the Oscars*

*Odds correct as of 01/11/2021

Academy Awards Most Likely Best Picture Winners

Now for the most significant award of the evening: Best Picture. The prestigious golden statue is awarded to the most outstanding and distinguished film of the year and is often the most exciting announcement of the night. Here, we will look at the latest predictions for the award to help you when betting on the Oscars.

Best Picture Award Contenders

One thing to note when betting on the Best Picture Oscar, you can’t go wrong backing a drama. The Academy loves rewarding dramatic films, often looking for impactful stories with political and/or sociological themes.

Belfast, the coming-of-age comedy-drama release by Focus, seems a firm favourite and satisfies the dramatic qualification. The black-and-white picture directed by Kenneth Branagh is a semi-autobiographical story of a young boy in Belfast in the 1960s. The title won the TIFF Audience Award 2021, an award that has cited three recent Best Picture winners: The King's Speech, 12 Years A Slave, and Green Book.

Another front-runner for Best Picture is Nightmare Alley, directed by Guillermo Del Toro. His previous title, The Shape of Water, claimed the Best Picture Award in 2018, and his latest work with an equally incredible cast could follow in its footsteps.

However, falling in the genre of romantic fantasy, The Shape of Water did break the norm.

Best Picture winners typically fall into the genre of drama, including its sub-genres of war, history, and biography. Previous examples include neo-western drama Nomadland (2021), biographical comedy-drama Green Book (2018), and coming-of-age drama Moonlight (2016). Many punters choose to form their Oscars betting system around this, which makes Belfast a solid favourite.

House of Gucci and The Power of the Dog are also likely nominees enveloping dark and complex storylines, and could prove to be two of the best Oscars bets. The latter has performed well within the US and is Jane Campion’s first release since 2009. It has excellent chances of winning Best Picture, falling within the western drama genre. The beloved New Zealander is a firm favourite of the Academy, having won Best Original Screenplay for The Piano in 1994.

Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci is a biographical crime drama telling the infamous story of the murder of Maurizio Gucci by his ex-wife. The title made a considerable splash on the internet, with many thinking Lady Gaga is also in with a chance of taking home the Best Actress Award.

Despite the love for drama, films that don’t fall into this genre are still nominated for Best Picture, but they rarely take home the trophy. One example is Promising Young Woman, a thriller nominated for the award in 2021 but missing out on the title. Joker, another psychological thriller, and The Irishman, an epic crime film, were also nominated yet didn’t win in 2019.

So, if you’re betting on nominees rather than winners, don’t neglect this when forming your Oscars betting system.

Oscars Best Picture Odds - 94th Academy Awards*

*Odds correct as of 01/11/2021

Looking at Oscars Winning Predictions

One of our top Oscars betting tips is to look at predictions ahead of the event, as well as previous years’ results. For example, back in 2021, Nomadland took home the most prestigious award of the night, the Best Picture, yet this came as no surprise, with the neo-western drama being the favourite of the bookies with an 85.7% chance to win. Director of the winning title Chloe Zhao also unsurprisingly won Best Director. It was also a festival darling, with many tipping it to win big from its premiere at the Venice Film Festival.

However, in the same year, leading actress Frances McDormand defied bookies’ expectations and took home the Best Actress Award. Coming into the event, betting sites had her listed as the third-favourite, behind Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis. The night’s biggest surprise, however, was the Best Actor award, given to underdog Anthony Hopkins for his lead role in The Father. Hopkins hadn’t won at any other televised award shows throughout the year, which were generally dominated by the late Chadwick Boseman.

This fact highlights how unpredictable the Academy Awards can be; the best Oscars bets may indeed defy everyone’s expectations. As you can see, there is no definitive Oscars betting system guaranteed to win, but the shock turns of the Academy Awards undeniably make the event even more entertaining.

Consider Other Awards and ‘Festival Darlings’ for Oscars Betting

A key tip to consider when wagering on the Oscars is the indication film festivals and other award ceremonies can give when looking at betting trends. Venice, Cannes, Sundance, Toronto, and other film festivals tend to provide strong early clues as to which films are in the running for an Oscar nomination and/or win.

For example, 2021 Best Picture winner Nomadland also won awards at the Venice, Toronto and San Diego Film Festivals and other award ceremonies, such as the Golden Globes, AACTA Awards, Critics' Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and more. Films that dominate other award ceremonies are typically a shoo-in at the Academy Awards.

The big film festivals, starting as early as July, can tip attentive and proactive bettors off on the films, performers and directors that have a strong chance of landing an Oscar come Spring.