Canadian Election Betting Odds As Justin Trudeau Polls Worsen
Justin Trudeau looks set to win the 2021 Canadian election but is not guaranteed a majority in the House of Commons after a rollercoaster five-week political campaign.
Canadians go to the polls today to vote for a new government with the Liberals’ hopes of securing a majority hanging by a thread.
PM Trudeau called the election back in August in an attempt to secure a majority in parliament that would then enable his party to easier pass COVID-19 recovery legislation, as well as a raft of other policies.
But following a tumultuous month-long campaign, Canada’s ruling party will likely be happy to go into a new parliamentary cycle as heads of a minority or coalition government.
There are more than 27million eligible voters in Canada and turnout was expected to be higher than the 67% witnessed back in 2019. And it appears as though Trudeau has done just enough to keep in power.
Canadian Election Betting Odds
According to the latest Canadian politics betting data, Monday should see a huge turnout across the country and result in a Liberal minority victory.
Trudeau is currently -600 to win the election, whereas Conservative leader Erin O’Toole is out at +333. These prices have both shifted over the past seven days, with Trudeau being more likely to win as O’Toole’s chances have widened. In fact, so certain are bookies that Trudeau will now win the Canadian election, they’re pitching him at 85.7% to succeed.
However, this does not guarantee Trudeau a majority in Parliament. The Liberals need 170 seats to secure a majority and came into this election with 155. Yet the polls are indicating that they will in fact lose seats, while the Conservatives should make small gains.
The odds of no overall majority in the 2021 Canadian election have slumped from -175 when the vote was called, to -1000 on election day. That suggests there is less than 10% chance of a party winning a majority.
Problems for Trudeau
Trudeau has endured a very difficult month in the lead-up to this election and the result will likely see him in a worse situation than when it all started. The Liberals are likely to lose seats and therefore make it even harder to govern as a minority, while the Canadian public now have wind of the policy demands of each of the other parties.
Discussions over the Covid-19 relief plan, climate change, immigration and education have been scrutinised in recent weeks – and Trudeau will need to set a new agenda heading into the next parliamentary cycle, assuming he holds on to power.
It appears unlikely, however, that the PM will be ousted from office. The idea of a coalition between Canada’s opposition parties was kiboshed by O’Toole during the election campaign when he pitched specifically to undecided voters of the Greens, New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois in an attempt to wrestle seats off them.
Canadian Election Results
The 2021 Canadian election results will be known in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Polling stations close on the country’s west coast at 7pm local time. There may be some delay in counting all official votes due to the postal system, but a clear picture is expected to emerge on who Canada have voted for within 24 hours of the election.
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