Trump Tax Revelations Aid Biden’s US Election Betting Odds

Trump Tax Revelations Aid Biden’s US Election Betting Odds
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Donald Trump’s latest tax revelations have caused the US election betting markets to swing heavily towards Joe Biden in the race for the White House.

The New York Times report into Trump’s tax returns claims that the sitting president ‘paid $750 in federal income taxes’ in the years 2016 and 2017.

Further revelations outline how some of Trump’s business ventures — such as his golf courses — have made major financial losses down the years.

And it is claimed the president is also personally responsible for loans totalling over $300 million, which are due within the next four years.

Further revelations are expected in the weeks leading up to the election. Trump has previously kept talk of his tax returns close, but the Times is likely to publish more stories between now and November 3.

Trump Odds Balloon

The president has hit back, branding the report "fake news” and saying: “The IRS [Internal Revenue Service] does not treat me well… they treat me very badly.”

But the news of Trump’s financial affairs has certainly rumbled the political betting markets. Paddy Power’s odds on Trump winning the 2020 US election have lengthened from Evens to 6/5 overnight.

The shift gives the incumbent a 45% implied probability of winning the contest, which is a major drop considering bookmakers had brought Trump’s price in level with Biden just weeks ago.

Indeed, the period of deflation of Trump’s odds during August and the majority of September appears to be over and the markets are now more accurately reflecting polling.

The latest election polls have Biden leading Trump 51-43, and it’s clear bookmakers are returning their odds back to previous levels.

As for his rival, Biden is marked up at 3/4 to win the election, a 57% implied probability.

US Election Debates To Start

Whether or not Trump can beat away the allegations and realign the focus of the election remains to be seen. But the 74-year-old has ramped up the rhetoric on Democratic candidate Biden heading into the first US election debate.

The president took to Twitter to accuse Biden of using ‘performance enhancing drugs’ – an unproven allegation that came moments after the NY Times published their article.

And he is expected to launch more personal attacks on Barack Obama’s former vice president – whom he called ‘Sleepy Joe’ – when the pair face off on the debate stage.

Biden himself has already gone on the attack over the NY Times revelations with a social media ad that compares Trump’s alleged tax payments with those of key workers.

The Democrat, 77, is expected to push Trump on his response to the coronavirus relief effort, growing social unrest and an 8.4% unemployment rate, when the pair meet on September 29 in Ohio.