November 9th, 2016
The results are in and the next President of the United States will be... Donald Trump. Yep, you read that right. To the surprise of every major media outlet, bookmaker, political analyst, and most humans on this planet, Donald J. Trump has won the US Presidential Election over former First Lady and Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Putting aside the global shock, the election itself drew a record setting number of bets for a non-sports event, expecting to pass betting totals for Brexit, the current record holder. Like most people around the world in general, bookmakers heavily backed Clinton to win, even to a fault; early reports show major bookmakers around the world lost millions following the surprise upset.
But like with all betting, if someone is losing money, someone else is gaining it and that's exactly the case with plenty of savvy punters who backed Trump to the White House; some of them even taking home some pretty sizable winnings. Now that the votes are cast, though, what's next in the world of political betting? Is it too early to look to odds on the 2020 election?
The US Presidential Election of 2016 is expected to go down as the most wagered non-sports event in the history of world. When all is said and done, it is expected there will be more wagers on the US election in the UK alone than the Euro 2016 soccer final or the Epsom Derby horse race, to put it into perspective.
Brexit betting totals reached over £120 million, shattering the previous records for betting on a non-sports event, but it looks like the referendum's time as record holder is coming to a swift close. As of now, most experts believe an expectation of over £150 million in bets on the US election is somehwat conservative, which would still destroy the old record by at least £30 million.
Brexit's initial connections to this year's US election started when Trump associated his campaign with the 'Leave' campaign. Then the two votes began competing for the non-sports betting record. But those aren't the only similarities this year's US election and Brexit have, both also ended in major upsets that not only surprised the average voter but blind sided bookmakers and political analysts alike.
Following news of the Brexit decision earlier this year, media outlets began reporting major loses by a few bookmakers who wrongly backed the 'Remain' campaign. It was revealed some major UK bookies incurred massive losses, totaling upwards of £400,000 for William Hill alone, the UK's leading bookmaker at the time. Betting operators like Ladbrokes and Coral were actually able to minimize their net loses despite backing the losing campaign.
This time around, the major upset hit Ireland's top bookmaker the hardest as opposed to a UK-based bookie. Paddy Power, known as the top Irish bookmaker, actually paid out on a Clinton win a week before the election ended but it was the winnings it had to payout to Trump-backers that cut the deepest: €4 million!
You saw that right, William Hill lost £400,000 on Brexit, Paddy Power lost €4 million on the US election. According to the Irish Times, a Paddy Power spokesman, Féilim Mac An Iomaire, confirmed the US election blunder was the the worst loss in company history:
"We've been well and truly thumped by Trump with his victory leaving us with the biggest political payout in the company's history and some very, very expensive egg on our faces."
Fortunately, the major loss is just part of the bookie business and hasn't deterred Ireland's top and one of the world'd largest bookmakers from already offering odds on Trump specials despite how bad he burned them in the election. Read on to find out what other markets are opened now that the election is over.
Despite the surprise of most by the outcome, some savvy punters were able to capitalise on the bookmakers' blunders. Thanks to generous odds for a Trump-win throughout the entire election, even leading up to election day, a few lucky punters were able to walk away with some massive payouts while others limped home following major losses.
First, we will discuss the biggest loss of this year's election betting. Ladbrokes announced their largest bet was a £100,000 bet on a Clinton-win. The odds at the time of the bet meant the punter only stood to receive a net gain of £25,000. Too put into perspective, a wager of £200 on a Trump-win would have net gained tens of thousands at the time.
This is all evidenced by reports of the massive winnings some punters incurred from actually backing Trump. One London punter backed Trump at a whopping £200,000, earning him the potential £500,000 he was offered, on top of the return of his initial bet. Another punter didn't quite reach £200,000 but did back Trump at £37,000, which was the last major bet before odds were majorly slashed across most bookie's sites.
All in all, the clear-cut winners of US presidential betting in 2016 was the shrewd punters who took a chance on backing Trump despite every major media outlet, bookmaker, political analyst and seemingly the greater world population claiming he had no real chance. As always, when it comes to betting the biggest events, the daring stand to prosper the most.
The US election has certainly captured the attention of a majority of the world, especially the media, but now that it's over, what's the next big event set to take the political betting world by storm? Well it would behoove punters to look into the 2020 US election despite it seemingly light years away with the 2016 election just ending yesterday.
Savvy punters who saw how controversial the 2016 election would be started making bets years in advance, so already considering the next election isn't unheard of by any means. The top online bookmakers certainly didn't waste anytime posting odds for the 2020 election, that's for sure. Ladbrokes - who recently merged with Coral to become the largest bookmaker in the UK - is already offering odds on a Trump re-election:
As mentioned, we would get to Paddy Power and their resistance to letting this year's big loss hold them back from embracing the the world's largest political events and all the risks that come with making odds for them. So thanks to some courage from Ireland's favourite bookie and the election betting cycle's biggest loser, punters can already begin placing bets of future political specials.
The markets being offered include a Trump impeachment and which foreign country he will visit first during his presidency. Regardless of how bad Trump's election burned Paddy Power, the topnotch bookmaker still offers plenty of odds on his presidency. Here's a collection of some of the best political bets offered at Paddy Power following the epic US election decision:
If none of these political betting markets offered at Paddy Power seem enticing but you're interested in getting on some other political betting action, just head over to Paddy Power's topnotch online bookmaker and browser the political betting section for all the best odds on the world's biggest political events!