2000 Guineas 2019 Betting Tips, Odds & Analysis
- Madhmoon to win at 7/1 with Redzone
- Quorto to win at 8/1 (Non Runner)
- Magna Grecia to win at 16/1
It's Guineas weekend, with the 2000 Guineas on Saturday and the 1000 Guineas on Sunday. Rory Delargy takes another look at the race to try and find you the winner of the first Classic of the season.
I had a look at the 2000 Guineas of the season a few months ago and identified Quorto and Magna Grecia as bets against hot favourite Too Darn Hot.
Since then, the front two in the market have succumbed to injury, and Persian King is set to stay in France. Too Darn Hot’s stablemate was gambled on and then promptly ruled out, and we have a very different race to look forward to.
Key Juvenile Trials:
The winners of key trials such as the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot (Calyx), National Stakes (Quorto) and Dewhurst (Too Darn Hot) are already on the missing list, but Futurity winner Magna Grecia and Middle Park winner Ten Sovereigns are now firmly ensconced at the head of the market as a result.
Brigadier Gerard did the Middle Park/Guineas double, but only two horses since has managed that feat, and one of them, Known Fact, only did so because of a hugely controversial (read wrong-headed) decision by the stewards.
That puts me off Ten Sovereigns, who, like most Middle Park winners, looks a sprinter rather than a miler. In the absence of Too Darn Hot and Calyx, we should promote Advertise as a de-facto contender given he was second in two of the key trials to horses who won’t be running, and won his other starts as a juvenile.
He certainly has the right profile, and is proven both in top-class company, and in the arena of major meetings with the increased emphasis that puts on sound temperament.
The Craven Stakes and the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket, the Greenham at Newbury and the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial are all opportunities for contenders to enhance their claims.
To some extent, these trials just lead to a bit of shuffling around in terms of the bit players, and the most impressive performance came arguably from Greenham winner Mohaather, who was ruled out by injury shortly afterwards. The Craven is often the most intriguing of these races, not least as it takes place over the Guineas course and distance.
Skardu was the one horse to really burst onto the scene by winning the Craven, and having raced only once last year, he’s clearly improved greatly, and needs consideration. On the other hand, with the only proven Group 1 performer in the field not seen to best effect, the Craven was not a vintage renewal by any means, and a defeat of Momkin, who had been turned over in a Ffos Las novice on his previous start, does not appear to be Guineas-class form.
Mohaather looked a live contender when winning the Greenham, but runner-up Great Scot is more exposed, and already put in his place when fifth behind Magna Grecia in the Vertem Futurity. Sixth that day was Kick On, and he also boosted the Doncaster form when winning the Feilden over a furlong further than the Guineas trip.
Kick On can do better this year, as can Feilden runner-up Walkinthesand, but both need to improve a bit more to win a Guineas, and the drop in trip is an obvious concern, for all both have the speed to be effective at a mile.
Madhmoon disappointed a few when losing his unbeaten record in the Guineas Trial at Leopardstown, but he probably needed that run for sharpness against a race-fit rival on ground much softer than ideal.
He had impressed when beating Broome in the Champions Juvenile Stakes on Irish Champion weekend, and that form has been well advertised by the runner-up. By a Guineas winner out of a mare by another Guineas winner in Haafhd, himself a son of his owner’s Irish 1000 Guineas winner Al Bahathri, Madhmoon has the most appealing pedigree of those still involved, and he looked a superstar in the making last year for veteran trainer Kevin Prendergast.
The worry with him is that he has yet to race away from Leopardstown, so Newmarket will be something new, but that’s an unknown rather than a known negative.
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Magna Grecia is a fair bit better than the bare result of his Vertem Futurity success. That race has become an important stepping stone for the O’Brien yard in particular, with both Camelot and Saxon Warrior going on to Guineas success in recent years.
He has a very likeable pedigree with the Guineas in mind, being by a top-class sire with a propensity for producing winners at up to a mile, and with the huge influence of Galileo as broodmare sire. Galileo’s name is writ large in the pedigrees of the vast majority of recent Guineas heroes, and he is the damsire of three of the last five winners.
What is most in Magna Grecia’s favour, though, is how quickly he has established himself at the top level, having made his debut on the last day of September. Such a rate of progress is remarkable, and suggests he will progress again as a three-year-old, possibly markedly.
I’m happy to sit on our ante-post position with him, but would be equally happy to recommend getting involved now for those who haven’t, as his claims are increased markedly by the defection of three of his main rivals since the original piece was penned.
The others who appeal now are Advertise and Madhmoon, with preference for the latter having achieved more despite being beaten on his return than Advertise did by taking part in a racecourse gallop. Madhmoon’s defeat of Broome last season looked very good at the time, and looks even better now with Broome landing the Ballysax Stakes on his return.
He is one of the few in the field who has the potential for greatness, and too much was made of his defeat in his prep, his wily trainer having his eye on only one prize.
Recommended Bet: Madhmoon to win at 7/1 with Redzone
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