It’s no surprise Bayern Munich are priced at just 1/41 with 888sport to make it through to the semi-finals, and that’s not just because they are the newly-crowned champions of Germany while Sevilla are seventh in La Liga. They also have history on their side, and I don’t just mean that they won the only previous meeting between these sides.
Since 2004, there have been five occasions where the away side won the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie with a 2-1 score line, just as Bayern did last Tuesday. In each previous case, that team got through to the next stage.
The German side will be aware, as they were the last side to be on the wrong end of it; Madrid won 2-1 in Munich in the quarter-finals last season, before completing the job in style with a 4-2 win at the Bernabeu. Sevilla may also hail from Spain, but they won’t provide Jupp Heynckes’ side with anything like the same level of test.
It simply looks an insurmountable task for Vincenzo Montella’s team. Bayern have only failed to win two of their home games in all competitions this season, and even then they drew both without going behind. It isn’t just that Sevilla need to win either, but they have to score at least twice.
Visiting teams have only netted twice three times in 19 matches at the Allianz Arena in 2017/18. Sevilla scoring twice at Old Trafford when faced with a Manchester United side scared of their own shadows is one thing, but Bayern will be far less charitable. The smart money has to go on a home win, which is priced at 1/4 with Ladbrokes.
However, that won’t make our fortune, so let’s see what other bets may provide better value. There’s a strong case to take a punt on a ‘yes’ bet in the both teams to score market. Both sides have found in the net in seven of Sevilla’s nine CL matches this season, which is the most times for any team in the competition. It’s also worth noting it has happened in all four of their games away.
Both teams have scored in five of Bayern’s European matches this season, albeit it has only happened once in their four games at home. Even so, with Sevilla needing at least two goals, and them recording the fewest clean sheets of the quarter-finalists, it seems likely both sides will net here. BetBright have odds of 4/5 that it happens.
There’s similar form which suggests a bet on over 2.5 goals would be sensible too, and that’s available with Sportnation at 20/59. All nine of Bayern’s Champions League matches in 2017/18 have featured at least three goals, and they are the only side to get this far into the competition and see it in every match.
Heynckes’ team have scored three themselves in six of the nine games, and with Sevilla having to chase goals they could easily do so again. There have been over 2.5 goals in seven of the Spanish side’s games at this level this season too, so this definitely looks to be a bet worth investigating.
It’s no surprise to see Robert Lewandowski is the favourite to open the scoring, at just 2/1 with Black Type, as he has scored 35 goals for Bayern this season. There may better value to be had elsewhere though, in form of Sandro Wagner. He isn’t guaranteed to start, so it’s wise to wait for the team news, but he has scored in six of his last eight matches for Bayern, so is a man in form.
If Sevilla are to reach the semi-finals, Wissam Ben Yedder will surely be the man to get them there. He is only behind Cristiano Ronaldo for both total and first goals scored in this season’s Champions League, and his odds of 9/1 to net the opener look inviting considering Sevilla need at least two.
It should be a decent match, as both sides are in decent form. Bayern have won five of their last six matches, and while Sevilla haven’t been as consistent, they have won four of their last six away games. However, the teams certainly had contrasting results at the weekend; Bayern came from behind to win 4-1 at Augsburg to seal their 28th Bundesliga title, while Sevilla were heavily beaten 4-0 at Celta Vigo.
The match stats suggest Los Rojiblancos were very unfortunate to lose by such a margin, and perhaps merited a draw, but it won’t have done their confidence much good. This seems certain to be a goal heavy match which Bayern win, so bear that in mind when placing your bets at one of the top online football bookies today.