Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Betting

TOP 5 CHELTENHAM MARES HURDLE TRENDS

  • Aged between 5-7
  • Won at least two hurdle races
  • Won one of their last three starts
  • Officially rated 147 or higher
  • Won, or beaten no more than 4 lengths, last time out

Get the latest David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle odds here

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KEY CHELTENHAM MARES' HURDLE TRENDS

The David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle trends have been dominated by Willie Mullins, the trainer winning nine of the 12 runnings of the 2m4f Grade 1.

In 2019, Roksana became the first horse trained in Britain to win the race since Whiteoak won the first renewal back in 2008 for Donald McCain junior, but even then, Mullins saddled the second and third - his odds-on favourite falling at the last when sure to win.

Two important notes to consider before applying the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle trends below:

  1. The race has only been running since 2008
  2. The same horse won it six times from 2009-2014: Quevega

There is a section in the trends below highlighting how the last five runnings have panned out, and it could be that those trends are the most useful for the finding the winner.


12-year-trends

The last 12 winners…

  • Were not British-bred
  • Had won one of their last three starts
  • Had run at least four times over hurdles
  • Had won at least twice over hurdles
  • Last ran at least 20 days ago

11 of the last 12 winners…

  • Were officially rated 147 or higher
  • Had won over the distance of 2m4f before
  • Had won at least twice on a galloping track
  • Featured in the top four in the betting

10 of the last 12 winners...

  • Were trained in Ireland
  • Had won on a left-handed track
  • Won, or were beaten no more than four lengths, last time out

Nine of the last 12 winners…

  • Were French-bred (including six-time winner Quevega)
  • Won last time out

The last five winners…

  • Were aged 5-7
  • Had won at least two hurdles, including over at least 2m4f
  • Had never won at Cheltenham before
  • Last ran no more than 52 days ago
  • Had at least been placed in a Graded race - three had won Grade 1s
  • Finished in the first three last time out in Listed or Graded company

The last 36 win and place positions

35/36 placed horses

  • Finished in the first four in one of their last three starts

33/36 placed horses

  • Finished in the first five last time out

32/36 placed horses

  • Last ran in a Listed or Graded chase or hurdle

28/36 placed horses

  • Had run in a Grade 2 hurdle or chase before - 23 finishing first three

KEY RACE TRENDS(12 years)

(Last major race contested prior to the Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle)

Key RaceRacecourseDist.WinnersPlaced Horses
Warwick Mares' Hurdle (Listed)Warwick2m5fGlens Melody (2015)Midnight Tour (2018), Glens Melody (2014), L'Unique (2014), Swincombe Flame (2013)
Warfield Mares’ Hurdle (G2)Ascot2m7.5fVroum Vroum Mag (2016)Bitofapuzzle (2016), Kentford Grey Lady (2013), Sparky May (2012), United (2009)
Quevega Mares Hurdle (Listed)Punchestown2m4fApple's Jade (2017)Stormy Ireland (2019), Good Thyne Tara (2019), Limini (2017), Legacy Gold (2016)
Doncaster Mares' Hurdle (G2)Doncaster2m 1/2fNoneVroum Vroum Mag (2017), Rock On The Moor (2016)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (12 years)

Trainer RunsWins Win% P/L Places
Willie Mullins 21 9 43 5.53 5
Gordon Elliott 4 1 25 0.50 1
Dan Skelton 4 1 25 6.00 -
Nicky Henderson 11 0 0 -11.00 3

WATCH: Racehour Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle Preview


How Roksana Won 2019's Mares’ Hurdle

As 10/11 favourite Benie Des Dieux crashed out at the last hurdle, Roksana was left in the lead and romped to victory, finally breaking Willie Mullins's strangehold on the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle.

Benie Des Dieux had done everything right as she sought a second successive win in the Cheltenham Grade 1, a win that would be 10th in the race for her trainer, Mullins, and a ninth for jockey Ruby Walsh.


4.10 CHELTENHAM - 2019 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle Result

  1. Roksana 10/1
  2. Stormy Ireland 7/1
  3. Good Thyne Tara 25/1

However, like 1/2 favourite Annie Power in 2015, she lost concentrate at the last flight, falling when three lengths clear and looking in command. Her misfortune was Roksana's lack, jockey Harry Skelton pushing the seven-year-old out for a two and a quarter length win.

Mullins did not leave empty-handed, 7/1 chance Stormy Ireland finishing second ahead of 25/1 stablemate Good Thyne Tara, the JP McManus-owned Elimay also collecting prize money in sixth.

The win by the Dan Skelton-trained Roksana was the first in the race by a horse trained in Britain since its first renewal was won by Whiteoak back in 2008.


Cheltenham 2020 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 - David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase

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