Comparing AP Rankings vs Odds: NCAA College Football Week 1

Trey Killian

August 21st, 2018

Comparing AP Rankings vs Odds: NCAA College Football Week 1

College football season is officially here as the Associated Press released its first poll of the season Monday. As one of the most prestigious preseason polls released every year, the AP poll plays a major roll in measuring expectations and anticipation for early season matchups.

The AP Top 25 is for many the great barometer for much of the season until the highly anticipated College Football Rankings are unveiled. The rankings are compiled via a weekly vote made by esteemed college football writers around the country. The website gets into further detail:

The AP Top 25 is determined by a simple points system based on how each voter ranks college football's best teams. A team receives 25 points for each first place vote, 24 for second place and so on through to the 25th team, which receives one point. The rankings are set by listing the teams' point totals from highest to lowest. The mathematical formula is the same as the one used for the AP Pro 32 rankings and the AP Top 25 rankings for men's and women's basketball.

Below we have the AP Top 25 listed next to outright future championship odds provided by some of our favorite sportsbooks. This table shows exactly how perceptions from the AP and oddsmakers may differ and hopefully it serves as an excellent guide for both those experienced and novice in college football betting.

AP Top 25 Week 1 vs CFP Championship Odds

Team	AP Ranking	Favourite Ranking	888sport Odds	Coral Odds	Karamba Odds	RedZoneSports Odds	EnergyBet Odds
Alabama	1	1	+240	11/5	+220	+275	9/4
Clemson	2	2	+500	6/1	+700	+500	6/1
Georgia	3	4	+900	8/1	+800	+800	8/1
Wisconsin	4	6	+2000	20/1	+2200	+2200	25/1
Ohio State	5	3	+750	6/1	+700	+800	7/1
Washington	6	7	+2500	33/1	+2500	+1800	20/1
Oklahoma	7	8	+2200	25/1	+2200	+2200	22/1
Miami	8	9	+2200	20/1	+2500	+2800	25/1
Auburn	9	10	+2200	28/1	+2200	+2000	25/1
Penn State	10	5	+1400	16/1	+1400	+1800	14/1
Michigan State	11	14	+3300	40/1	+3000	+2800	28/1
Notre Dame	12	16	+4000	50/1	+4000	+4000	33/1
Stanford	13	17	+5000	50/1	+4000	+4000	33/1
Michigan	14	4	+1400	14/1	+1400	+1500	11/1
USC	15	15	+3300	40/1	+4000	+4000	40/1
TCU	16	20	+5000	66/1	+6600	+6600	66/1
West Virginia	17	18	+5000	50/1	+4000	+5000	50/1
Mississippi State	18	25	+12500	N/A	+12500	+12500	100/1
Florida State	19	13	+3300	25/1	+2800	+2800	33/1
Virginia Tech	20	19	+5000	50/1	+4000	+5000	40/1
UCF	21	23	+10000	66/1	+10000	+10000	125/1
Boise State	22	24	+12500	100/1	+12500	+12500	100/1
Texas	23	11	+2500	25/1	+2500	+2200	25/1
Oregon	24	21	+5000	80/1	+6600	+6600	66/1
LSU	25	12	+3000	33/1	+2800	+4000	25/1

Discrepancies Could be Revealing Value

As can plainly be seen, there are quite a few discrepancies between each school’s offered odds of winning a national title and their actual ranking.

Alabama is predictably the unanimous number one and has the best odds of repeating their championship, while Clemson is ranked second and picked by most sportsbooks as the best team after Bama.

After those two teams, however, there’s relative chaos and a few bets that are worth considering due to their value based on the rankings comparison alone.

Three teams in particular will have Heisman-level quarterbacks that can at least get them to the college football playoff and their odds are tantalizing should they break through and lead their schools to glory.

Redzonesports.bet offers West Virginia, led by Will Grier, at +5000 odds of winning it all, Coral gives the Oregon Ducks and Justin Herbert just an 80/1 shot and Washington led by Jake Browning a 33/1 chance.