County Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 6th, 2019

County Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 COUNTY HURDLE TRENDS

No more than 4 hurdle wins
No more than 2 handicap hurdle wins
Run in at least 1 handicap hurdle
Not favourite in County Hurdle betting
Officially rated no higher than 140

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Did Trends Win The Last County Handicap Hurdle?

There were four horses shortlisted by the County Hurdle trends in 2019, including the second and third home in one of the Cheltenham betting's trickiest heats.

Grade 1-winning five-year-old We Have A Dream, who finished second at 14/1, was the most tentative tip from the trends, based loosely on the model presented by the last top-weight winner Arctic Fire. Generally, the winner is rated less than 140, but when a horse very close to top-weight is a Grade 1 winner, they have to be respected.

Third Countister was a better trends fit with a rating of 133, only two hurdle wins - over the right distance - and no handicap wins, but where she fell out of the trends profile was her non-existent handicap experience, and lack of a run since the previous Cheltenham.

Unfortunately, the two best fitting the County Hurdle trends were Capitaine and Monsieur Lecoq, both finishing well down the field. It could be that the profile of a County Hurdle winner is moving closer to Grade 1 class. Time, will tell.

KEY COUNTY HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

Were aged up to nine
Had run in at least one handicap hurdle
Had an average official rating of 138, only two horses rated more than 139 winning

14 of the last 15 winners…

Were trained in Ireland - or by Paul Nicholls, or Dan Skelton
Won one of their last 10 starts; exception Ch'Tibello

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

Were aged between five and eight
Had won no more than four hurdle races
Had won no more than two handicap hurdles, five winning none
Had won a race over 2m-2m1f before
Were not favourite in the betting

Nine of the last 10 winners…

Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
Carried no more than 11st 5lb
Had won at least two hurdle races
Had run 2-4 times that season
Last ran at least 33 days ago

Eight of the last 10 winners…

Did not win last time out
Were officially rated between 134-139; exceptions 146-rated Ch'Tibello, 158-rated Arctic Fire
Had not won any Graded hurdle; Ch'tibello, Arctic Fire the exceptions

Seven of the last 10 winners…

Were aged 5 or 6
Had run in no more than four handicap hurdles
Had run at Cheltenham before, but only 1 had won

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the County Hurdle)

Key Race	Racecourse	Winners	Place Finishers
Ladbrokes Hurdle (Grade B)	Leopardstown	Thousand Stars (2010), Final Approach (2011), Ted Veale (2013)	Plan A (2012), Shadow Catcher (2013)
Betfair Hurdle (G3)	Newbury	Remiluc (2018)	Sternrubin (2016), Montbazon (2014), Manyriverstocross (2013), Sailors Warn (2011), Get Me Out Of Here (2011), Nearby (2011)
Imperial Cup (G3)	Sandown	Wicklow Brave (2015)	Arctic Fire (2014)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle (G1)	Leopardstown	None	Whiskey Sour (2018)
Heroes Handicap Hurdle (G3)	Sandown	None	Arcalis (2010)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

Trainer	Runs	Wins	Win%	P/L	Places
Dan Skelton	8	3	38	48.00
Willie Mullins	29	4	14	50.00	6
Tony Martin	4	1	25	7.00	1
Paul Nicholls	14	1	7	-3.00	1

WATCH: Racehour County Hurdle Preview

How Ch'Tibello Won 2019's County Hurdle

Unraced since early December, Ch'Tibello defied 11st 5lb to give trainer Dan Skelton an unprecedented third County Hurdle win from just eight runners.

Sent off at 12/1, the former Scottish Champion Hurdle winner, was held up by jockey Dan Skelton, coming through a stacked field to lead at the last and win by a length and a half.

It was the first time the eight-year-old had run since having a wind operation, and his first win for more than two years, the performance seeing him carry the second highest weight of any victor for 15 years.

2.10 CHELTENHAM - 2019 COUNTY HURDLE RESULT

Ch'Tibello 12/1
We Have A Dream 14/1
Countister 18/1
Whiskey Sour 5/1f

Talented five-year-old We Have A Dream, burdened by 11st 1lb, finished second, with Nicky Henderson-trained stablemate Counntister back in third under 10st 6lb, having not run since the 2018 Cheltenham Festival

The 5/1 favourite Whiskey Sour, third in 2018, finished fourth this time for Willie Mullins and jockey Ruby Walsh, last year's County Hurdle winner, Mohaayed leading to the penultimate flight, before plugging on for seventh at 40/1.