Football Betting Strategy: Goals Over/Under Market


Football Betting Strategy: Goals Over/Under Market

In football betting, the 'goals over/under' market all too often plays second fiddle to the showier 'correct score' and 'goalscorer' markets. Which is a shame, because it's a better option for cultivating regular returns, and a flexible way to control risk and reward.

The Stats

The number of goals in a football match is a statistic that remains surprisingly consistent. Throughout the entire history of the English Premier League, for example, the average number of goals per games has always been between two and three. But we can be even more specific than that. The lowest scoring year was 2006/7, when the average was 2.45, the highest was 2011/12 with 2.81; but the average in the past four years has always been above 2.75.

This shows that even punters who are completely new to the 'goals over/under' market have a shot at earning regular return, just by having a regular shot at betting on over 2.5 goals/game. In fact, punters who made this bet on every single match in the 2012/13 Premier League would have won an impressive 52% of their bets.

Gamblers who preferred to take less risk when they bet could have backed over 1.5 goals in each match, and would have won 73% of the time. Those willing to take more risk for higher odds could have consistently backed over 3.5 goals, which still landed in 33% of matches.

While it's reassuring that a simple statistical strategy can deliver regular wins with very little analysis, it is vital to find the best odds week-in, week-out when making statistical bets like this. Squeezing every penny out of each betting triumph becomes crucial when relying on the continuation of long-standing trends.

Risk vs Reward

Another nuance that can be built into a 'goals over/under' betting strategy is adjusting risk/reward based on a deeper analysis of each match. Goalscoring records offer a good indication of teams that will fall above or below that magic 2.5 goals/game average.

A good example was Everton's 2-3 Premier League defeat to Crystal Palace. While many thought Everton would triumph comfortably by a goal or two, 'goals over/under' experts would have noted that Palace had scored three goals in three of their last four matches - while Everton only managed that feat in two. Aside from the implications for the needlessly lopsided 'match winner' market, even that quick glance at the teams' seasons so far suggested that a bet on over 4.5 goals was worth a punt.

Of course, sometimes a deeper tactical assessment becomes necessary. For example, before Stoke City's 2-2 draw with QPR, both sides had a tendency to be involved in 1-0 matches. However, when looking closely at the styles of the teams faced in those instances, it's clear that these were much cagier affairs than the two teams would produce against one another - which is a red flag for flexible 'goals over/under' gamblers.

However, whichever approach you decide on, the key is to stick to your guns so that you can assess its success over the long term. When committing to regular bets on a fixed outcome, don't be swayed by superficial assessments, and when playing flexibly based on form and tactics, stick to your conclusions: whatever odds are on offer.

For all the latest 'goals over/under' market odds, visit Coral Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be +18 to participate.

Betting Strategy Articles

Finding Value Bets Following World Cup Group Announcements
Finding Value Bets Following World Cup Group Announcements

The World Cup draws ever closer and the groups have now been announced. If you're planning on taking a punt on some of the games, finding value bets is – quite literally – your best bet, so here's som ... Read More

Bookmakers Shift Trump’s Odds in Favor of Finishing Term
Bookmakers Shift Trump’s Odds in Favor of Finishing Term

Many bookmakers offered generous prices on Trump finishing his first year's term but his first year in the White House has seen his odds fall. The movement has raised the question of whether the Presi ... Read More

Hamilton’s Title Hunt Makes Abu Dhabi Betting Interesting
Hamilton’s Title Hunt Makes Abu Dhabi Betting Interesting

The Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi has seemingly favoured betting on a select group of F1 drivers. As the teams head to the Persian Gulf for the race on 26 September 2017, let's take a look at the Fo ... Read More

Betting the Davis Cup Final Could Mean Backing an Underdog
Betting the Davis Cup Final Could Mean Backing an Underdog

After battling away for the best part of 2017, the Davis Cup finalists, France and Germany, are now just one victory away from securing the famous tennis trophy for their country but the bookmakers ha ... Read More

Why You Should Be Wagering the ATP World Tour Finals 2017
Why You Should Be Wagering the ATP World Tour Finals 2017

The 2017 ATP World Tour Finals are shaping up to be an intriguing week of tennis, with several new faces and a new sponsor to spice things up. Time to take a look at the runners and riders and see whe ... Read More

Hamilton Securing Title Means Betting Value in Brazil 2017
Hamilton Securing Title Means Betting Value in Brazil 2017

The penultimate race of the Formula One season takes place this weekend. The drivers’ championship may be over but there's still plenty of interest in the Brazilian Grand Prix, and time to place your ... Read More

Betting Navigation


Sign up for the free Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy


Country Guide

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Trading Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2017 GDC Trading Limited. All Rights Reserved. is a registered trademark of GDC Trading Limited.
Terms and Conditions   |   Privacy Policy