Golf Betting Strategy: How to Find Value

SHARE

Golf Betting Strategy: How to Find Value

Golf betting is a tricky business, and top odds are available for shrewd punters who think they can pick a tournament winner. Less well-recognised, however, is the value in picking a winner in-play; likewise the importance of 'head-to-head' markets, which enable fans of the fairway to notch up regular wins while they wait for that big payout.

Pre-Match Betting

In pre-match betting, the best value is to be found in outsiders, newcomers and dark horses. Since Tiger Woods' dominance has waned, tournaments have rarely been won by the favourite, and so regular golf backers require big wins to offset regular losses on 'tournament winner' bets: and an odds-on favourite won't deliver that. The primary factors to consider when seeking a likely underdog are:

  • Form: a player's performance in recent tournaments
  • Experience: proven ability to win, or hunger to prove they can
  • The Course: how a player's game suits the length and layout
  • Weather Conditions: wind, rain or baking heat all affect play; remember, tee off times are a factor here too
  • Playing Partners: a partner can inspire (or hold back) a performance

In-Play Betting: Shortening Odds

Those who prefer to hold out for the best odds are advised to bet with caution - good play can shorten odds in a heartbeat. For example, in the fourth round of the 2014 Hyundai Tournament of Champions, Matt Kuchar's birdie on the seventh saw him tumble from 33/1 to 10/1 on Bet365 Sports. The worst thing to do is follow the pack and jump in at the lower odds, because Kuchar jumped back to 50/1 after a subsequent bogie, and gradually fell away as players with later tee times caught up. The key with golf in-play betting is to judge a performance over several holes, and try and get in before the leaderboard (and the prices) change. These rapid fluctuations in the 'tournament winner' market also show us the importance of finding low-risk alternatives.

'Round Leader' Market

If the weather is likely to be favourable for a particular pairing, consider a bet on the round leader. Take the third round of the 2013 Open Championship, when Lee Westwood sat in a strong position for most of the day, beginning to end. Even with favourable conditions for the on-form Englishman, most bookies still gave out odds of around 10/1 (shortening to 2/1) for Westwood to hold his lead. His tournament winner odds were not much higher, despite a changeable weather forecast, so the round leader bet represented a sensible chance to minimise risk while cashing in on his play.

'Hole Winner' Market

Alternatively, risk-averse punters may wish to consider the hole winner markets. Seek out mismatches, or players who size up differently - perhaps a big hitter like Dustin Johnson paired against a player with less range on a Par five; or an accurate player on a par three. In tight match-ups, a tie becomes even more common, and regular bets on these can yield consistent, small income to wager ratios on the less predictable 'tournament and round winner' markets. Betting sites like Bet365 Sports also offer 'player matchup' markets over several holes, so predictions can be stretched further for slightly longer odds.

Play these fluctuation and hedging strategies wisely and golf betting suddenly looks a lot less difficult and a lot more lucrative. To see how far you've come with golf betting, check out the available golf betting markets at Bet365 Sports

Recommended Betting Sites

Betting Strategy Articles


Bookies Expect Repeat Performance from Hamilton at Monaco
Bookies Expect Repeat Performance from Hamilton at Monaco

With 78 laps of the finest and most demanding race track in the world, there is no room for error at the Monaco Grand Prix. The record for fastest lap was achieved by Lewis Hamilton only last year; th ... Read More

Checkout Bookies Offering World Rugby Sevens Series Odds
Checkout Bookies Offering World Rugby Sevens Series Odds

World Rugby Sevens Series betting this year has been dominated in the main by the team labelled the 'Blitzboks' – South Africa, but don't let that scare you off from the betting market entirely. The W ... Read More

Who to Back Now that Federer Pulled from the French Open
Who to Back Now that Federer Pulled from the French Open

With news that Roger Federer is pulling out of The French Open just six days before the start, it's all change in the betting markets ahead of the event which will run from May 22 to June 11. Check ou ... Read More

Betting Tips on 3 Golfers to Back at Players Championship
Betting Tips on 3 Golfers to Back at Players Championship

In the spirit of competition and finding the best online betting odds for the Players Championship this weekend, we've taken a look through our list of partner sites and picked out "the" players to lo ... Read More

1st Leg Shutouts = Betting Value in Champions League Semis
1st Leg Shutouts = Betting Value in Champions League Semis

There's no major tournament in the football world to get stuck into over summer 2017, so the Champions League Final is an enticing culmination to the European season when it comes to online betting. W ... Read More

Premier League Table Betting Tips as 2017 Season Wraps Up
Premier League Table Betting Tips as 2017 Season Wraps Up

This year’s Premier League hasn’t matched the romance and betting bonanza of Leicester’s 2015/16 title campaign, with a predictable top seven and the usual suspects making up the relegation zone. But ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide