Golf Betting Strategy: How to Find Value

SHARE

Golf Betting Strategy: How to Find Value

Golf betting is a tricky business, and top odds are available for shrewd punters who think they can pick a tournament winner. Less well-recognised, however, is the value in picking a winner in-play; likewise the importance of 'head-to-head' markets, which enable fans of the fairway to notch up regular wins while they wait for that big payout.

Pre-Match Betting

In pre-match betting, the best value is to be found in outsiders, newcomers and dark horses. Since Tiger Woods' dominance has waned, tournaments have rarely been won by the favourite, and so regular golf backers require big wins to offset regular losses on 'tournament winner' bets: and an odds-on favourite won't deliver that. The primary factors to consider when seeking a likely underdog are:

  • Form: a player's performance in recent tournaments
  • Experience: proven ability to win, or hunger to prove they can
  • The Course: how a player's game suits the length and layout
  • Weather Conditions: wind, rain or baking heat all affect play; remember, tee off times are a factor here too
  • Playing Partners: a partner can inspire (or hold back) a performance

In-Play Betting: Shortening Odds

Those who prefer to hold out for the best odds are advised to bet with caution - good play can shorten odds in a heartbeat. For example, in the fourth round of the 2014 Hyundai Tournament of Champions, Matt Kuchar's birdie on the seventh saw him tumble from 33/1 to 10/1 on Bet365 Sports. The worst thing to do is follow the pack and jump in at the lower odds, because Kuchar jumped back to 50/1 after a subsequent bogie, and gradually fell away as players with later tee times caught up. The key with golf in-play betting is to judge a performance over several holes, and try and get in before the leaderboard (and the prices) change. These rapid fluctuations in the 'tournament winner' market also show us the importance of finding low-risk alternatives.

'Round Leader' Market

If the weather is likely to be favourable for a particular pairing, consider a bet on the round leader. Take the third round of the 2013 Open Championship, when Lee Westwood sat in a strong position for most of the day, beginning to end. Even with favourable conditions for the on-form Englishman, most bookies still gave out odds of around 10/1 (shortening to 2/1) for Westwood to hold his lead. His tournament winner odds were not much higher, despite a changeable weather forecast, so the round leader bet represented a sensible chance to minimise risk while cashing in on his play.

'Hole Winner' Market

Alternatively, risk-averse punters may wish to consider the hole winner markets. Seek out mismatches, or players who size up differently - perhaps a big hitter like Dustin Johnson paired against a player with less range on a Par five; or an accurate player on a par three. In tight match-ups, a tie becomes even more common, and regular bets on these can yield consistent, small income to wager ratios on the less predictable 'tournament and round winner' markets. Betting sites like Bet365 Sports also offer 'player matchup' markets over several holes, so predictions can be stretched further for slightly longer odds.

Play these fluctuation and hedging strategies wisely and golf betting suddenly looks a lot less difficult and a lot more lucrative. To see how far you've come with golf betting, check out the available golf betting markets at Bet365 Sports

Recommended Betting Sites

Betting Strategy Articles


Expert Tips for Betting on NFL Games Played Outside the US
Expert Tips for Betting on NFL Games Played Outside the US

The National Football League, better known as the NFL, has ramped up their efforts the past few years to expand their support outside of their home in the US. Thanks to the NFL International Series, r ... Read More

NFL Heads Back to London: Best Bets for Jaguars vs Ravens
NFL Heads Back to London: Best Bets for Jaguars vs Ravens

American football's top professional league, the NFL, kicked off it's 2017 season across the pond a few weeks ago but is primed to make it's first international appearance of the season this weekend a ... Read More

England vs West Indies ODI’s Best Odds from Top Bookmakers
England vs West Indies ODI’s Best Odds from Top Bookmakers

After the latest nail-biting International Test Match Series against the West Indies, England proved it could steal the show, winning the third game. Now, with a series of One Day Internationals (ODI) ... Read More

Ultimate Guide to Betting on the Emmy’s Top Awards 2017
Ultimate Guide to Betting on the Emmy’s Top Awards 2017

The 69th Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Sunday 17th September, and it looks to be an exciting evening for those with a nose for exemplary television shows. Check out our extensive betting preview ... Read More

Singapore Grand Prix 2017 Expert Betting Tips and Preview
Singapore Grand Prix 2017 Expert Betting Tips and Preview

The Singapore Grand Prix always delivers in terms of entertainment and this season looks as though it will be no different. With Lewis Hamilton taking the chequered flag at the recent Italian Grand Pr ... Read More

Ultimate Guide to the Best Bets and Odds of NFL Season 2017
Ultimate Guide to the Best Bets and Odds of NFL Season 2017

The NFL has grown in global coverage over the past decade, giving punters more in the way of betting interest and ammunition when it comes to placing value bets. With the 2017/18 NFL season kicking of ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide