Apple's Jade drops back in trip on Saturday to test her Champion Hurdle credentials in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown
Unstoppable at any level over 2m4f and 3m, she has cantered to two Grade 1 victories this season, but now faces 2018 Champion Hurdle second Melon and the reigning Irish Champion Hurdle winner Supasundae over a distance she hasn't won over in three years.
In fairness, she hasn't exactly tried, and despite that, is already as short as 5/1 in antepost betting to win this year's Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival - connections suspiciously adamant that will never be her target.
Regardless their thoughts, she has a huge opportunity to prove it should be at the Dublin Racing Festival, and only five are set to stand in her way.
Irish Champion Hurdle trends are skewed by the five successive victories of the all-conquering Hurricane Fly, from 2011-2015. However, by largely discounting all but his first win, and going back to Foreman's 2004 success, we find some interesting trends to consider.
In a nutshell, to find an Irish Champion Hurdle winner based on trends, you're looking for a Leopardstown winner, who is also a Grade 1 winner, has been around the block, and can stay beyond 2m up to 2m5f.
Generally, the winner is the highest rated in the field, and aged between 6-8, with five-year-olds finishing particularly badly, though not many were fancied runners.
The pick on trends is Supasundae, from a shortlist including nine-time Grade 1 winner Apple's Jade and former Irish Champion Hurdle winner Petit Mouchoir - remember, only Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winners have won more than one Irish Champion Hurdle in the 21st century.
>> Back Supasundae to Win at 11/4 with Black Type
Nothing has stopped Apple's Jade (5/4 Bet365) this season, and her skinny odds in the Irish Champion Hurdle betting bill her as a Solwhit-style machine, which she certainly will be if winning.
During his glittering career, Solwhit won Grade 1s over 2m, 2m4f, and 3m, landing the Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham, Liverpool and Aintree Hurdles at the Grand National meeting, and the Irish and Punchestown Champion Hurdles, as well as finishing second in the 3m1.5f French Champion Hurdle.
>> 5 Best Bets to Play Now at Dublin Racing Festival this weekend
He was a more complicated ride, needing cover early to come with a late run and never winning by more than a few lengths. Apple's Jade is his opposite there, winning three races this season by a combined 57 lengths.
The one key rival she hasn't met though is Melon.
Trainer Willie Mullins' only contender Melon (3/1 Paddy Power) could well win the Irish Champion Hurdle thanks to Apple's Jade and her style of running.
The front-running mare, a Grade 1 winner over 2m4 and 3m, will ensure Melon gets the strongly-run race he craves, and received when beaten only a neck by Buveur D'Air in last season's Champion Hurdle.
Even on the Flat in France, Melon's best performances came in big fields, where a good pace was guaranteed, his form in races with more than 10 runners reading: 1122 - versus less than 10: 8242135F4.
He's not going to get more than five rivals on Saturday, but he will get that pace and has to strip fitter for his rather flat return at Leopardstown in December. What Melon needs now is another round of jumping like at Cheltenham, a sight rarely seen.
>> Back Melon for Irish Champion Hurdle at 3/1 with Paddy Power
When Supasundae (11/4 Black Type) won last year's Irish Champion Hurdle, the ground was testing, and the race run perfectly to suit, which the Ryanair Hurdle was not when he was second last time out.
That day last February he met a regressing Faugheen, about to embark upon a new staying career, and an unhappy, hooded Melon, who next time out would almost win the Champion Hurdle.
He was rated the same as Melon then (159), now that rival edges 1lb above the somewhat fortunate 2018 Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner, but Supasundae would still be a formidable foe if the ground were to relent.
It is good to yielding at present, rain, sleet and snow forecast to close in from Tuesday-Thursday, so no one is expecting heavy ground, but the more testing it is, the greater Supasundae's chances, if anyone has one against Apple's Jade anyway.
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.
Confirm your email address in the email you will receive shortly.
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.
Confirm your email address in the email you will receive shortly.
DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Trading Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2021
GDC Trading Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Trading Limited.
Terms and Conditions |
Privacy Policy