NFL Week 11 Betting Tips & Picks: Over-Under Plays to Back
- Bet Bears-Vikings under 45.5 with Karamba.
- Bet Eagles-Saints under 54.5 with 888Sport.
- Bet Cardinals-Raiders under 40.5 with Betfair.
- Bet Texans-Redskins under 42.5 with 888Sport.
The urgency surrounding division races begins to grow as the NFL season enters its third quarter. We’ll start off this week’s over/under NFL betting picks in the NFC North, where there is a very big division game in Chicago.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Over/Under Total: 45.5 with Karamba
The Bears have given up fewer points than all but one NFC team. The Khalil Mack factor has been undeniably overwhelming this season.
Mack has collected seven sacks in seven games to lead the Bears’ turnaround on defense. Coordinator Vic Fangio deserves lots of credit, as they’re allowing 3.6 yards per carry, are second in sacks (30) and lead the NFC with 24 takeaways (second-best in the NFL).
The Vikings haven’t been a dominant team this season but they have improved as the season has progressed. They allowed 27.6 points per game in their first four but have cut that down to 18.8 in their last five.
The key in this game should be their run defense, which allows a league-best 3.6 yards-per-carry (tied with the Bears). The Bears are a different offense when they can’t run the ball effectively. That should lead to a low-scoring affair. Bet the under with Karamba.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Over/Under Total: 54.5 with 888Sport
At this point, it’s hard to trust the Eagles in any kind of capacity. Their defense is missing three members in their secondary (Ronald Darby, Sidney Jones and Rodney McLeod) and now has to go up against one of the best passing games in the NFL.
On offense, the Eagles simply can’t run the ball with any consistency as they rank 21st in rushing yards per game. Their longest run of the year is 29 yards; only three teams are below them in that stat.
The challenge here is that we have a huge total expecting lots of points from both sides, but can we expect the Eagles to oblige? They scored 34 at the New York Giants but scored just 23 at Tennessee and 21 at Tampa Bay.
Very quietly, the Saints defense has been playing really well. They’ve allowed just 21.5 points per game over their last six. The Saints will score in this one but it’s hard to see the Eagles keeping up – especially absent of a reliable ground game. Take the under with 888Sport.
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under Total: 40.5 with Betfair
These are two of the three worst offensive teams in the NFL. Arizona has scored just 124 points and Oakland is at 147. Only the Buffalo Bills, with 137 points, are also part of the NFL’s group of its three worst offenses.
The Raiders had an unexpected 45-point outburst against the Cleveland Browns and have done virtually nothing in their other games this season. They have scored six points or less in three of their last four. Their defense has been atrocious too and we’ve bet many overs with them as their opponents have been able to take advantage and run up the score.
The Cardinals have one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines, though, a rookie quarterback and a shabby passing game. Kansas City’s anemic pass rush looked good against the Cardinals this past Sunday. This should be an ugly contest where both offenses struggle. Take the under with Betfair.
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins
Over/Under Total: 42.5 with 888Sport
This is a matchup of two division leaders but it’s hard to believe that each team is at the top of a division. Both seem to be squeaking by in their wins.
In this particular game, it’s hard to see the Redskins doing much on offense. They are likely to be without at least three starting offensive linemen and they are also very thin at wide receiver. The Texans come in off a bye with a defense that’s ranked ninth overall in yards and seventh in points. They’ve allowed just 15.2 points per game over their last five.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans have mostly labored in road games in terms of offense. They have scored 20 or less in four of their five road games. If you remove their 37-point outburst at Indianapolis, they’re averaging just 19 points per game on the road.
As for the Redskins, as shaky as their offense has been, the defense has been mostly solid. They are the fourth-ranked unit in terms of points allowed and have held all but one of their five home opponents to 21 or less. Both teams should struggle on offense here, and I’d bet the under at 888Sport in this spot.
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