Oscars Betting Tips: Three Billboards Set for Best Picture?

Gambling.com Editor

March 1st, 2018

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It's nearly time to see the red carpet rolled out as the 90th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 4. Will a standout film sweep the boards, who will host Jimmy Kimmel put in the spotlight, and who’ll cry the most tears? Taking odds out on the Oscars can make for a welcome change from sports betting and add a whole new element to watching the ceremony. Here are some wagers to consider:

The Categories

First things first. If you want wider odds with a bit more risk but better potential winnings, then less obvious markets like 'Best Foreign Film' or 'Best Production Design' can be a good place to start when compared to the more heavily covered categories like leading role or best film.

The most well-known awards, like 'Best Director' or 'Best Picture', tend to have more even odds. This will vary based not only on an individual bookmaker's odds (as you'll be used to seeing with most sports), but also on the nature of the film or actor. The Shape of Water is a good example this year – it’s as high as 15/8 and 6/4 with some of the most popular betting sites offering wagers on 'specials'.

Best Picture

As we're on the subject of The Shape of Water, the 'Best Picture' category seems as good a place to start as any. Here are this year's nominees, and their odds with leading bookmaker Paddy Power Sports:

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri = 5/6
• The Shape of Water = 6/4
• Lady Bird = 10/1
• Get Out = 14/1
• Dunkirk = 33/1
• Call Me by Your Name = 100/1
• The Post = 150/1
• Phantom Thread = 200/1
• Darkest Hour = 200/1

Three Billboards won this year’s BAFTA awards for 'Best Film', 'Outstanding British Film' and 'Original Screenplay'. That’s worth taking into consideration as you decide where to put your money betting the 2018 Oscars.

Actor/Actress in a Leading Role

Every actor dreams of picking up that little gold statue; how many practised an acceptance speech before they ever landed a role? It could be a pretty impressive payday for you too, if you can predict who’ll be awarded 'Best Actor or Actress in a Leading Role'. Here are the odds for this year's best actor nominees, with BetBright offering some good value:

• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour = 1/33
• Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. = 50/1
• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name = 16/1
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread = 25/1
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out = 16/1

All evidence is pointing to Oldman as the winner for his portrayal of Winston Churchill. He's been cleaning up at awards recently (he won a BAFTA and a Golden Globe for his performance), and this does often indicate an Oscar is on the way. Oldman was Oscar-nominated in 2012 for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy but Jean Dujardin took honours with The Artist. Could this be his year?

Timothée Chalamet is also a strong contender for his role in the coming-of-age drama Call Me by Your Name. It's not likely that he'll top Oldman though, purely based on the fact that historically this award tends to go to older actors. The opposite is true for actresses. Here are the odds for 'Actress in a Leading Role':

• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water = 14/1
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird = 8/1
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri = 1/20
• Meryl Streep, The Post = 50/1
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya = 33/1

This is a tough one to call this year. It's probably going to be linked to some extent to which film wins 'Best Picture'. Meryl Streep is no stranger to being nominated and she’s won three times – in 2012 for her role as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, 1983 for Sophie’s Choice and 1980 for her supporting role in Kramer vs. Kramer.

Will The Post bring Streep a fourth Oscar for her collection? Saoirse Ronan is the wildcard here. She might only be 23 but she's already had two nominations (her leading role in Brooklyn, 2016, and her supporting role in Atonement, 2008). She could be the surprise winner this year.

Best Director

This coveted award is normally closely tied to the 'Best Picture' winner. It's no different this year; all nominees' films have made it into the 'Best Picture' category. Here are the odds with Ladbrokes:

• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water = 1/12
• Jordan Peele, Get Out = 33/1
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread = 50/1
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird = 10/1
• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk = 6/1

Unlike other categories, pundits are fairly convinced who’ll win – del Toro. Perhaps most tellingly, on February 3 he won the DGA (Directors Guild of America) award for 'Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film'. Winners of that have then taken the Oscar too, 61 times of out the 70 years the awards have been running.

Whether you're a movie buff or someone who enjoys the big blockbusters only, placing a bet on this year's Oscars promises to be dramatic and it could be lucrative. Log on to one of many top online bookmakers, select your wager, and set the scene for an interesting evening.