Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe Betting: Can Enable be Beaten?
All eyes will be on Queen Enable as she looks to make it three-in-a-row this weekend in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. With challengers from all across the globe, she bids to make horse racing history under regular pilot Frankie Dettori and trainer John Gosden.
Is Enable Too Short To Make History?
However, being the 8/11 favourite with the best horse racing sites she may not be the betting proposition that punters want in such a competitive event.
She faces multiple Group 1 winners including Japan (Juddmonte International), Sottsass (Prix du Jockey Club), Waldgeist (Prix Ganga) and Magical (Irish Champion Stakes). Throw in the unknown factor in German Group 1 winner Ghaiyyath, and you have an absolutely fantastic contest.
Raiders from Ireland, England, Japan and even the Czech Republic will turn up for Europe’s richest prize.
Japan have been desperate to win the race since Deep Impacts agonising second in 2006, but it could be argued their best two horses aren’t even running in Almond Eye and Deirdre. Nagano Gold, an 80/1 shot with William Hill, looks to have it all to do having failed in much weaker races this year, but connections should be applauded for such a bold campaign.
Aidan O'Brien's Duo Not To Be Dismissed
Aidan O’Brien saddles two runners, and he's a trainer to always note after his famous 1-2-3 in the 2016 renewal won by Found.
I have no doubt that Japan is continuing to improve throughout the season, and that's why he’s an 11/2 shot with Coral. He didn’t get the best of runs in the Epsom Derby, but he’s three from three since, and has crucial course and distance form as well as soft ground form.
He followed a romp at Royal Ascot up with two Group 1 successes in the Grand Prix De Paris and the Juddmonte International beating Crystal Ocean.
The second Ballydoyle runner, Magical, looks to have had a very similar campaign to Found with a prep run in the Irish Champion Stakes being used as a stepping stone. She has finished behind Enable a couple of times this season but perhaps with a win under her belt, she can gain some confidence and go closer this time. Magical is a 12/1 shot with Paddy Power.
Quite A Strong Home Team
France hold a very strong hand on their home turf which is led by their star three-year-old Sottsass. He’s completely unexposed having had just six career runs and only one run at the 1m4f trip. A devastating performance in the Prix du Jockey Club, beating the Andre Fabre monster Persian King, put him firmly on the radar for this race.
He was given a three month break until the Prix Niel and has been completely targeted at the Arc. Arguably he got lucky in the Prix Niel, having found trouble against the rail he used his impressive turn of foot to get up close home.
That turn of foot will definitely give him an advantage and similar tactics nearly came off last year with Sea of Class. Last year’s Arc had 19 runners however and Sea of Class found a wall of horses in front of her. This year’s race looks likely to be 12 runners, so Sottsass should have a much clearer path.
Waldgeist is the other home competitor in with a shout but he did only finish 4th in last year’s renewal having been beaten 2L by Enable. He’s had a carbon copy campaign as last year with his preparation in the Prix Foy, but he’s finished three lengths behind Magical and two lengths behind Enable over in England.
He’s a real solid campaigner and a good yardstick, but I find it hard to see him winning with Enable back again and progressive three-year-olds also taking the challenge on. Perhaps the 18/1 with William Hill will interest punters for an each-way bet, which I wouldn’t put anyone off, but I just find it hard to see him winning the race.
#QPAT— Equidia (@equidia) October 2, 2019
Ils sont 12 partants probables pour le #QPAT dimanche à @paris_longchamp
Comme attendu, le pensionnaire de Jean-Claude Rouget, Soft Light a été supplémenté pour un coût de 120.000€.
Anthony Van Dyck a, quant à lui, été retiré de la liste par Aidan O'Brien. pic.twitter.com/kHK3dILIlg
Ghaiyyath A Dark Horse For Germany
Ghaiyyath is the real unknown factor here. He’s four from six in his career but is a four-year old and has yet again had a very light campaign. He is 2/3 at Longchamp and is unexposed at the trip.
His win last time out at Baden-Baden was astonishing, but it’s hard to weigh up what that form means. He’s definitely an exciting horse, but he bossed a much smaller and weaker field, anybody taking a chance on him at the 10/1 available with Coral will be backing him on potential and not form.
He finished behind Waldgeist earlier in the year when he flopped at odds of 1/3, but that clearly wasn’t his true running. While I don’t think he can win, he definitely throws a spanner into the works and brings a completely unexposed profile with new form lines into the race.
Enable The Great
And now onto the main dish - Enable, the ten time Group 1 winning mare, 128 rated and a dual Arc winner. There are no words to describe how special she is and how much of a complete racehorse she is.
She’s a best price of 4/5 with 888Sport and that reflects her chances given she’s won the previous two renewals at odds of 10/11. She handles soft ground, she can go front the front, behind the pace and has a turn of foot with a blend of stamina.
She’s the perfect racehorse and has the perfect jockey on board too. After such a disrupted and rushed preparation last year, you could argue she’s in even better form this campaign and that’s a dangerous thought!
After taking in the Eclipse and King George, she had her preparation for this race in the Yorkshire Oaks. It was a perfect low key prep that went smoothly and she looks primed for this. Favourite backers will be drooling at the thought of backing her for this year’s renewal but I think she’s worth taking on.
This year’s renewal looks stronger than the last few years, especially last year’s race. Sea of Class was arguably her only danger last year, but she had a torrid run and still nearly beat Enable. This time we have a much better French challenge with Sottsass and Japan is much better than anything that Aidan O’Brien sent over last year. On top of that you have Ghaiyyath who simply could be anything.
Sottsass The Value
At the current odds, I think Sottsass (NAP) at 7/1 with Bet365 is brilliant value. He’ll be getting the three-year-old weight for age allowance and his turn of foot over this trip could be crucial. In a similar mould to Sea Of Class, he should enjoy a much better trip and given he’s only had six career runs there could be much more to come from him.
It would come as no surprise to see Enable win her 3rd Arc and what a story it would be, I just get the feeling this is a particularly strong renewal and the likes of Japan and Magical should not be discounted from such a master trainer.
Magical had a sighter last year very much similar to how Found was campaigned in 2015/2016 and Japan has strong form lines with Crystal Ocean, who’s chased home Enable back on home turf.
Whatever happens history will be made, even more so if Enable wins, which will be the hope of the neutrals.
However with the girls winning six of the last seven, with the likes of Treve, Found and Enable, I think it’s the boys turn to win the Longchamp showpiece.
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