NFL Week 6 Best Bets Against-the-Spread Worth Considering

Dave Golokhov

October 11th, 2018

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Quick Tips:

• Bet Texans -9 over Bills with 888Sport.
• Bet Redskins -1 over Panthers with Karamba.
• Bet Colts +2.5 over Jets with Karamba.
• Bet Jaguars -3 over Cowboys with 888Sport.

The NFL season moves closer and closer to the midpoint. By now, NFL betting fans have a somewhat clearer grip on who the teams are. As unpredictable as this league can be, we’re counting on what we’ve seen serving as a solid foundation for our spread picks for Week 6:

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

The line: Texans -9 at 888Sport

The Texans are laying a huge number in this spot, and that’s going to scare bettors for a number of reasons.

For starters, the Texans have just two wins and they might be lucky to have that. Awful decisions in overtime by their opponents is what really led to the wins. On top of that, the Bills are coming off an impressive home win against the Tennessee Titans.

At the same time, I’m just not a believer in the Bills. Josh Allen is a terrible quarterback. He’s completed 26 total passes over the last two weeks and has three interceptions and no touchdown passes. He has quarterback ratings of 42 and 36.3 in each of his last two games.

The bottom line for Buffalo is if they can bait the opponent into mistakes, they’ll have a shot. When they beat the Minnesota Vikings, they won the turnover battle 3-0. Last week, they won the turnover battle 3-1.

If that doesn’t happen, they tend to get blown out (lost by at least 11 in other three games). I think Houston keeps it simple, avoids mistakes and earns an easy win here. Take the Texans -9 with 888Sport.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins

The line: Redskins -1 at Karamba

Carolina is 3-1 so far this season, but it’s important to note that it’s only played one road game so far. No team in the NFL has played less. The Panthers lone road game was a 31-24 loss at Atlanta, which apparently is not a very good team.

The Redskins are coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football at the New Orleans Saints but should be able to bounce back in this spot. The Redskins are an odd team, as they play very well when they get an early lead and play very poorly when they fall behind early.

Carolina has trailed in the first half of two of its last three games. Furthermore, the Panthers defense is having a tough time pressuring opposing QBs, as they have just nine sacks so far (24th in the NFL). As a whole, their pass defense is 26th in the league.

After seeing Eli Manning pick them apart last week, the Redskins – who are desperate for a rebound – should get that this week. They’ll get ahead early and do a far better job of managing the game. Grab the Redskins -1 with Karamba.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

The line: Jets -2.5 at Karamba

The formula for the New York Jets seems to be quite simple: run the ball effectively and they win. Fail to do so and they lose. The Jets have 675 rushing yards on the season and their 135.0 per game is sixth best.

At a closer look, though, 492 of those yards have come in two games (their two wins). That means they’re averaging just 61 rushing yards per game in the other three contests (all losses).

The Colts have their flaws, but the run defense hasn’t been the problem. They’re allowing 4.0 yards per carry, which is 11th in the NFL. They gave up 152 rushing yards to the Philadelphia Eagles but are allowing 95.5 in their other four contests.

It’s true that this Colts team is banged up, but with 10 days to prepare, we should see a good effort from them. They really just need to stop the run, force the game on the shoulder of rookie Sam Darnold and they should be in good shape.

Back the Colts +2.5 with Karamba.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

The line: Jaguars -3 at 888Sport

It feels like we’re getting a little bit of a discount on the Jaguars in this spot. They’re coming off an ugly loss and are without Leonard Fournette, so a line that may have been -4 or -5 is now a field goal. The fact that they’re not playing well and are without Fournette is a concern, but I think they can still get by the Cowboys.

Dallas averages just 16.6 points per game, and coach Jason Garrett continues to make highly questionable decisions, such as punting in plus territory in overtime this past Sunday against the Houston Texans.

The Cowboys have a ravaged offensive line and can’t expect to do a good job of blocking for Ezekiel Elliott or protecting Dak Prescott as a result. Prescott is averaging 192.2 passing yards per game and his 6.67 yards per attempt is 29th in the NFL.

While the running game is working, that probably won’t be the case against the Jaguars, who only allow 4.0 yards per carry. This will be a low-scoring, ugly game, and that’s exactly what the Jags want. They’ll succeed here. Bet them -3 with 888Sport.